城轨交路票价合理性影响因素异质性分析
Heterogeneity analysis of factors influencing the ticket pricing rationality of full-length and short-turn routes in urban rail transit
张婧宜 1马景峰2
作者信息
- 1. 陕西铁路工程职业技术学院铁道运输学院,陕西渭南 714025
- 2. 东南大学交通学院,江苏南京 211189
- 折叠
摘要
票价的合理性极大地影响着乘客对城市轨道交通的满意度,而交路可缓解城市轨道线网中客流时空分布不均衡问题.因此,针对城轨交路票价制定合理性的影响因素进行异质性分析非常必要.从乘客属性、出行特征、交路体验、社会属性4个方面,选取22个潜在影响因素;采用线上线下相结合的方式获取453份有效问卷数据,利用潜类别聚类(LCC)方法进行聚类分析,基于AIC准则与熵值法得出最合理的聚类数为3;围绕完整数据集与子数据集分别构建偏比例优势(PPO)模型.结果表明,其中20个因素具有显著性影响,部分因素在总模型中不具有显著影响,但在个别子模型中却具有显著性,表明LCC-PPO联合模型在探索异质性影响方面具有明显的优越性.由3个子PPO模型的边际效应分析可知,影响最大的前6个因素为月收入、私家车保有量、出行距离、到站用时、大交路发车间隔与小交路补贴,其边际效应绝对值的最大值均超过32％.此外,不同类别间与各因素内的子变量对城轨交路票价制定合理性的评价存在着显著的异质性影响.
Abstract
The rationality of ticket prices greatly affects passengers'satisfaction with urban rail transit.Full-length and short-turn route can help alleviate the imbalanced problem of space-time distribution of passen-ger flow in urban rail network.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the heterogeneity in factors influencing the rationality of ticket pricing for full-length and short-turn routes.From four aspects:passenger attrib-utes,travel characteristics,routing experience,and social attributes,a total of 22 potential factors were selected in this study.A combination of online and offline methods was used to collect 453 valid question-naire data.The latent class clustering analysis was performed for clustering analysis.Based on the AIC crite-rion and entropy-based approach,the most appropriate number of clusters was identified as 3.The PPO models were developed for the whole data set and sub-data set.The results showed that 20 factors have sig-nificant impacts,and several factors have insignificant effects in the whole model,but revealed the signifi-cant influences in particular sub-models.It evidenced that the LCC-PPO model had an obvious advantage in exploring the heterogeneous impacts.According to the marginal effects of the three sub-models,the top six factors having the greatest impact were monthly income,private car ownership,travel distance,arrival time,time interval of full-length routes,and subsidies of short-turn routes.Their maximum absolute values of marginal effects exceeded 32％.Moreover,it was easy to find the significant heterogeneity in the ticket pricing rationality of full-length and short-turn routes in urban rail transit across different clusters and within each factor.
关键词
城轨交路/票价合理性/异质性影响/潜类别聚类分析/偏比例优势模型Key words
Full-length and short-turn routes of urban rail transit/Rationality of ticket pricing/Heteroge-neity/Latent class clustering analysis/Partial proportional odds model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
陕西铁路工程职业技术学院2018年首批科研基金项目计划(KY2018-34)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据