Prediction and analysis of tax revenue based on ARIMAX Model
Based on the tax revenue,gross domestic product,and fiscal expenditure data of China from 1978 to 2019,an ARIMA model was established for tax revenue using R software.The ARIMAX model was also established for tax revenue with gross domestic product and fiscal expenditure as covariates.The two models were used to predict tax revenue from 2020 to 2022,and the predicted values were compared with the true values to calculate the relative error and average absolute percentage error.It was found that compared with the ARIMA model,the ARIMAX model has smaller errors,higher accuracy,and more accurate predictions.Therefore,the ARIMAX model is used to obtain the predicted values of tax revenue from 2023 to 2025.