Forecast and analysis of per capita disposable income based on ARIMA-GM(1,1)combination model
The per capita disposable income of Chinese residents from 1983 to 2022 is taken as the research data,and the time series data are predicted and analyzed by ARIMA model,grayscale prediction GM(1,1)model and its related combination prediction model.The data from 2018 to 2022 is taken as the model test set,relevant evaluation indexes are introduced for goodness of fit analysis,and the best prediction result of per capita disposable income in 2023 is given.The results show that the MAPE of all prediction models is lower than 1％,and the prediction accuracy of the combined prediction model based on ARIMA-GM(1,1)using arithmetic average method is significantly higher than that of the single prediction model,and the fitting effect is the best.
ARIMAGM(1,1)combinatorial forecastingper capita disposable income
万方数据
维普
