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甘肃农村居民消费结构与消费潜力分析

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本文主要对2012-2022年甘肃省农村居民消费水平和消费结构现状进行比较分析,运用扩展线性支出模型、HP滤波方法对农村居民消费倾向及消费潜力进行测度.研究表明,甘肃省城乡居民消费差距在不断缩小,农村居民消费水平与全国的差距在不断拉大,其消费增长大于收入增长,消费水平主要是受收入低的制约;农村居民消费结构优于全国水平,但恩格尔系数出现反弹,农村居民生活水平极不稳定,存在潜在的返贫隐患,新冠疫情对农村居民消费的冲击还需时日修复;交通通信建设落后导致农村居民对交通通信的消费意愿最低,支出最缺乏弹性;农村居民生存型消费支出的潜力发挥相对充分,在教育文化娱乐和医疗保健方面的消费潜力最大,在生活用品、交通通信方面的消费潜力有待进一步提升.
Analysis of consumption structure and consumption potential of rural residents in Gansu province
This paper mainly analyzes the consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu province from 2012 to 2022,and uses the extended linear expenditure model and HP filter method to measure the consumption tendency and consumption potential of rural residents.The research shows that the consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Gansu province is constantly narrowing,and the gap between the consumption level of rural residents and the country is constantly widening.The consumption growth is faster than the income growth,and the consumption level is mainly restricted by the low income.The consumption structure of rural residents is better than the national level,but the Engel coefficient has rebounded,the living standards of rural residents are extremely unstable,there is a potential risk of returning to poverty,and the impact of the COVID-19 on rural consumption needs time to be repaired.The backward construction of transportation and communication leads to the lowest willingness of rural residents to consume and the most inelastic spending.The consumption potential of rural residents'subsistence expenditure is relatively full,with the largest consumption potential in education,culture,entertainment and medical care,and the consumption potential in daily necessities,transportation and communication needs to be further improved.

consumption structureconsumption potentialitymarginal propensity to consumeHP filter

杨雪琴

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甘肃省社会科学院,兰州 730070

消费结构 消费潜力 边际消费倾向 HP滤波

甘肃省社科规划青年项目

2021QN048

2024

甘肃农业
甘肃农业杂志社

甘肃农业

影响因子:0.211
ISSN:1673-9019
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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