首页|21世纪以来西藏日喀则苹果花期终霜冻变化特征

21世纪以来西藏日喀则苹果花期终霜冻变化特征

扫码查看
[目的]研究苹果花期霜冻气候风险,为有效防御霜冻灾害对当地苹果生产的影响提供科技支撑.[方法]以日最低气温为霜冻指标,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析等方法,分析2002年—2023年日喀则苹果花期终霜冻变化特征和气候风险指数.[结果]日喀则苹果花期呈推迟趋势,平均每10年推迟1.58~6.69 d,以盛花期最明显;开花期偏晚的突变发生在21世纪前10年中后期,且未来花期持续推迟的可能性高.苹果花期各等级终霜冻发生频率为54.5%~95.5%,花期终霜冻的气候风险指数达4.41,明显高于我国北方苹果主产区.[结论]全球气候变暖背景下,日喀则终霜冻日期提早,苹果花期推迟,花期终霜冻的气候风险将降低.
Cultivar Characteristics of Last Frost during Apple's Flowering Period in Xigaze,Xizang from 2002 to 2023
[Objective]The study of frost climate risk in apple's flowering period provides scientific and technological sup-port for effectively preventing the impact of frost disaster on local apple production.[Methods]Taking the daily minimum tem-perature as the frost index,the linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis were used to analyze the culti-var characteristics and climate risk index of the final frost of apple flowering period in Xigaze from 2002 to 2023.[Results]The flowering period of apple in Xizage showed a delay trend,with a rate of 1.58-6.69d per decade,which was most obvious at the full bloom date.The mutation of later flowering period occurred in the middle and late of the 2000s,and the possibility of continuous delay of flowering period in the future was higher.The frequency of each grade of last frost during the apple flower-ing period was 54.5%to 95.5%,and the climate risk index of final frost during the flowering period reached 4.41,which was significantly higher than that of the main apple producing areas in the north of China.[Conclusion]Under the background of global warming,the date of the final frost in Xizage was advanced,the apple's flowering period delayed,and the climate risk of the final frost in flowering period would be reduced.

appleflowering periodfinal frostchange trends

旦增维色、杜军、徐薇、巴桑

展开 >

西藏自治区拉孜县气象局,西藏 拉孜 858100

西藏高原大气环境科学研究所/西藏高原大气环境开放实验室,西藏 拉萨 850001

日喀则国家气候观象台,西藏 日喀则 857000

苹果 花期 终霜冻 变化趋势

2025

果树资源学报

果树资源学报

ISSN:
年,卷(期):2025.6(1)