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中国流动人口市民化意愿与土地城镇化水平耦合的时空演变特征研究

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利用我国 264 个城市的流动人口动态监测调查数据、土地覆盖类型数据及经济社会数据,运用耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析、马尔科夫链及空间计量模型,分析 2013-2017年中国流动人口市民化与土地城镇化协调发展水平的时空演变特征及影响因素。研究结果发现,(1)时序上,中国城市流动人口市民化意愿与土地城镇化率耦合整体水平偏低,并有波动下降的发展态势。各城市耦合协调发展的不平衡程度加剧。空间上,呈现出"东部-东北-中部-西部"逐级递减的分布特征。(2)流动人口市民化意愿与土地城镇化耦合协调度具有维持原有等级状态的稳定性,且状态类型的动态演变是一个相对连续渐进的过程。(3)经济水平、房地产投资、绿地以及土地财政等因素都能显著提高耦合协调度,但不同的公共服务对协调度有着差异化的影响。经济水平对四大地区的耦合协调度都能产生显著正向作用,而其他因素仅对部分地区存在显著影响。
A Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Coupling between the Urbanization Intention of China's Floating Population and the Level of Land Urbanization
Using the dynamic monitoring survey data of floating population,land cover type data and economic and social data of 264 cities in China,and using the coupling coordination model,exploratory spatial data analysis,Markov chain and spatial econometric model,this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coordinated development level of urbanization and urbanization of Migration in China from 2013 to 2017.The research results found that,(1)in terms of time series,the overall level of coupling between the urbanization willingness of urban migrant population and land urbanization rate in China is relatively low,and there is a fluctuating and declining development trend.The imbalance in the coupled and coordinated development of various cities has intensified.In terms of space,there is a gradually decreasing distribution characteristic of"East Northeast Central West".(2)The coupling coordination of floating population's citizenization willingness and land urbanization has the stability of maintaining the original hierarchical state,and the dynamic evolution of the state type is a relatively continuous and gradual process.(3)Economic level,real estate investment,green space,and land finance can significantly improve coupling coordination,but different public services have a differentiated impact on coordination.The economic level can have a significant positive effect on the coupling coordination degree of the four major regions,while other factors only have a significant impact on some regions.

urbanization preferenceland urbanizationcoupling coordination degreespatiotemporal evolutionspatial econometric model

温锋华、蒋雅婷

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中央财经大学政府管理学院,北京 100081

市民化意愿 土地城镇化 耦合协调度 时空演变 空间计量模型

2025

国土与自然资源研究
黑龙江省科学院自然与生态研究所

国土与自然资源研究

影响因子:0.377
ISSN:1003-7853
年,卷(期):2025.(2)