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2000-2020年中国建成区扩张及其驱动因素分析

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本文基于 2000-2020 年省级面板数据,通过建立建成区变化的驱动力模型,对我国 31 个省(区、市)以及东、中、西部地区建成区扩张的驱动因素进行分析。研究结果显示,(1)2000-2020 年间,全国 31 省建成区面积稳步上升,每年增长约2 004。97 km2,且东部地区建成区面积增速超过中、西部地区之和。(2)31 省整体的建成区扩张主要由二三产业增加值、城镇人口数量和交通(公路里程或铁路营运里程)三个因素驱动,各因素的影响效果为"二三产业增加值>城镇人口数量>交通"。(3)就东、中、西部地区而言,城镇人口的增加是各地区建成区扩张的主要驱动力之一,随着地区社会经济的发展,其影响效果逐渐减弱,在地区发展到一定水平之后二三产业增加值成为建成区扩张的主要驱动因素。
Analysis on the of Built-up Area Expansion and its Driving Factors in China during 2000-2020
This study analyzed the driving factors of built-up area expansion in China,eastern region,central region and western region based on provincial panel data during 2000-2020 by constructing driving force model of built-up area change.The results showed that,(1)the total quantity of built-up area of 31 provinces grew by about 2 004.97 km2 every year,and the growth rate of built-up area in eastern region exceeded that of the central and western regions combined during 2000-2020.(2)The major driving factors for built-up area expansion in China were the added value of secondary and tertiary industry,urban population,and transportation,which were ranked by effect from high to low.(3)For eastern,central and western regions,urban population growth played an important role in driving built-up area expansion.With the development of economy,the effect of urban population growth for built-up area expansion decreased and the added value of secondary and tertiary industry became the core driving factor.

built-up areadriving factorspanel data

王曦、张怡雯

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中国自然资源经济研究院,北京 101149

中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 100083

水利部信息中心(水利部水文水资源监测预报中心),北京 100053

建成区 驱动因素 面板数据

2025

国土与自然资源研究
黑龙江省科学院自然与生态研究所

国土与自然资源研究

影响因子:0.377
ISSN:1003-7853
年,卷(期):2025.(2)