Multi-scenario Simulation of Urban Land Use and Ecosystem Services based on the PLUS Model:A case study of Sanmenxia City
This paper discusses the response of Sanmenxia ecological service system value(ESV)to land use change in different future development scenarios,as well as the differences and measures between different ESV.This paper adopts a single dynamic land use,patches to generate land use simulation(PLUS)model,ESV calculation method of Sanmenxia normal business situation(BAU),ecological protection scenario(EC),economic development scenario(ED)simulation,and use the sensitivity test to measure the trade-off between ecological service system.The results show that,(1)the land use types in Sanmenxia city are mainly cultivated land,woodland and grassland,and the ecological environment is superior.Between 2000 and 2020,the area of woodland and construction land increased,and the grassland area decreased.These changes have an impact on ecological balance and sustainable development.(2)The PLUS model is used to simulate the land use of Sanmenxia City,and the satisfactory results are obtained.The accuracy of the model reached 94.44%,which means that the model's prediction of the land use situation is quite accurate.Furthermore,the Kappa coefficient was used to assess the model consistency,showing a Kappa coefficient of 0.917,further confirming the reliability of the model.(3)The ecosystem service value of Sanmenxia City has changed significantly.The increase of forest land,grassland and water area is an important reason for the growth of ecosystem service value in Sanmenxia City.Under the normal business scenario,the ESV value of Sanmenxia City is RMB 13.632 51 billion;under the ecological protection scenario,the ESV value is RMB 13.789 63 billion;and under the economic development scenario,the ESV value is RMB 13.622 83 billion.
land use changeecosystem service valuepatch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model
万方数据
维普
