This paper divides the factors affecting per capita water shortage into four categories:industrial structure,urbanization,total water resources and climate environment.Based on the time series data from 2003 to 2020,after standardized data processing,so the partial least squares regression method is used to simulate and study the per capita water shortage in the province,and the water scarcity situation in the next three years is predicted.The most important influencing factors of water scarcity are total water resources,population and domestic water use.Secondly,the decline of rural population and the rise of urban population caused by the urbanization process in Shandong have also increased the consumption of water resources in Shandong.Finally,the increase of precipitation and the total water resources can alleviate the problem of water shortage to a certain extent.To sum up,controlling the population,raising the price of water and enhancing people's awareness of water saving can all reduce domestic water use and achieve the purpose of rational use of water resources.
关键词
人均缺水量/水资源短缺/逐步回归/偏最小二乘回归
Key words
per capita water shortage/water shortage/stepwise regression/partial least squares regression
维普
万方数据