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基于LMDI法的我国采矿业能源消费碳排放驱动因素研究

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本文基于CEADs能源消费数据和 17 类能源相关参数,运用IPCC参照法估算了 2004-2019 年全国 29 个地区采矿业能源消费CO2 排放,分析其总量、结构与分布特征,同时基于Tapio脱钩模型研究其与行业产值的脱钩关系,并利用LMDI分解法探讨影响其变化的驱动因素。研究结果表明,2004-2019年,我国采矿业能源消费CO2 排放呈先增后减的倒"V"型,在2012 年达到最大值,其在空间、行业和能源类型上分布不均。全国和省域层面其与行业产值间以弱脱钩状态为主,但脱钩趋势由稳步改善转变为有所退化。产值变动效应起主要增排作用,能源强度效应起核心减排作用,能源结构效应减排作用相对较小。这些因素对区域层面CO2 排放的作用存在异质性,需要实施差异化的减排策略。
Research on the Driving Factors of CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption in China's Mining Industry based on LMDI Method
Based on CEADs energy consumption data and 17 types of energy related parameters,this article uses the IPCC reference method to estimate CO2 emissions from mining energy consumption in 29 regions of China from 2004 to 2019,analyzes their total amount,structure,and distribution characteristics,studies their decoupling relationship with industry output value based on the Tapio decoupling model,and use the LMDI decomposition method to explore the driving factors that affect its changes.The results indicate that the CO2 emissions from energy consumption in China's mining industry showed an inverted V-shaped pattern,reaching its maximum in 2012,with uneven distribution in space,industry,and energy types.The CO2 emissions and output value of mining energy consumption at the national and provincial levels are mainly weakly decoupled,but the trend of decoupling has shifted from steady improvement to some degradation.The output value change effect plays a major role in increasing emissions,the energy intensity effect plays a core role in reducing emissions,and the energy structure effect has a relatively small role in reducing emissions.These factors have heterogeneous effects at the regional level,and differentiated emission reduction strategies need to be implemented.

mining industryenergy consumptioncarbon emissiondecoupling analysisfactor decomposition

罗世兴、张萌

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中国自然资源经济研究院,北京 101149

采矿业 能源消费 碳排放 脱钩分析 因素分解

2025

国土与自然资源研究
黑龙江省科学院自然与生态研究所

国土与自然资源研究

影响因子:0.377
ISSN:1003-7853
年,卷(期):2025.(2)