Analysis and Scenario Prediction of Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in China's Mining Industry
Under the double-carbon background,emission reduction and carbon reduction in the mining industry has an important impact on the realization of carbon peak in the industrial field.Based on the full-caliber economic census and data on terminal energy consumption of 28 types of energy such as thermal power and electric power,the paper calculates the CO2 emission of energy consumption of mining industry in China from 2000 to 2021,analyzes its driving factors by LMDI method,and makes a scenario forecast of CO2 emission from energy consumption of mining industry in 2025.The results indicate that the CO2 emission of energy consumption in China's mining industry shows an inverted V-shaped trend from 2000 to 2021,and the CO2 emission per unit output value decreases steadily;the industry is mainly distributed in the coal mining industry,oil and gas mining industry and energy consumption of electric power and coal;From 2004 to 2018,the output value change effect and energy structure effect are the main emission increasing factors,while the industrial structure effect is weak;the energy intensity effect is the core emission reduction factor,but its emission reduction effect declines.Emission coefficient effect is the weakest in emission reduction.The low,medium-low and medium emission scenarios are difficult to achieve the reduction target of energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of output value in 2025.Although medium-high and high-emission scenarios can achieve the planning target,it is difficult to achieve both total carbon emission and intensity reduction.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the adjustment and optimization of energy consumption structure and industrial structure while maintaining the decline of energy consumption intensity.
NETL
