Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change in Chengdu and Carbon Effect Analysis Based on CA-Markov Model
Based on the analysis of land use status in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020,this study applies CA-Markov model and scenario prediction model to predict the changes in land use structure of Chengdu in 2030,and analyzes the carbon effect change caused by land use changes in Chengdu.The results indicate that:(1)The overall trend of land use pattern changes in Chengdu shows a decrease in farmland and grassland and an increase in construction land.From 2005 to 2020,the area of construction land increased the most,and the area of cultivated land decreased the most.(2)Under the three scenarios of land use change,there is an increase in construction land area and a decrease in farmland and grassland area.Construction land in natural development scenario was increased by 3.39×104 hm2,construction land in urban development scenario was increased by 5.66×104 hm2,and construction land in ecological protection scenario was increased by 1.67×104 hm2,with the growth rate of construction land in the ecological protection scenario significantly lower than that in the natural development scenario and urban development scenario.(3)The total carbon effect of urban development scenario was 1.62 times that of natural development scenario and 3.76 times of that of ecological protection scenario.The expansion of construction land is the main factor affecting the carbon effect.Strictly limiting the excessive expansion of construction land in urban construction is an important way to achieve green and low-carbon urban development.
CA-Markov modellow carbonChengduland use changescenario simulation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
