黄河流域城市气候韧性评估及提升对策研究
Climate Resilience Assessment and Enhancement Countermeasures for Yellow River Basin Cities
武占云 1孙劭 2张双悦 3王伟4
作者信息
- 1. 中国社会科学院 生态文明研究所,北京 100710
- 2. 中国气象科学研究院 灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100053
- 3. 天津商业大学 经济学院,天津 300134
- 4. 中央财经大学 政府管理学院,北京 100081
- 折叠
摘要
增强气候韧性是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的应有之义.基于IPCC"灾害—暴露度—脆弱性"的气候风险框架和"工程韧性—生态韧性—演化韧性"的韧性理论框架,系统评估黄河流域气候韧性水平.结果表明:(1)黄河流域气候风险和城市韧性水平具有明显的地域差异性,均呈现上游＞中游＞下游的空间特征;(2)黄河流域气候风险水平趋于上升,下游地区上升最为显著,是极端降雨和极端高温事件的高发区;(3)黄河流域城市类型以脆弱型和高风险城市为主,且不同城市类型在时间和空间维度发生明显跃迁和转变.为科学有效应对气候变化风险和挑战,应差异化实施气候应对策略,协同推进工程韧性、生态韧性、经济韧性和社会韧性,提升流域气候韧性和可持续发展能力.
Abstract
Enhancing climate resilience is an implicit requirement for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the IPCC"disaster-exposure-vulnerability"climate risk framework and the resilience theoretical framework"engineering resilience-ecological resilience-evolutionary resilience",the climate resilience level of the Yellow River Basin will be systematically assessed.The results reveal that(1)the climate risk and urban resilience level of the Yellow River Basin have obvious geographical variability,both presenting the spatial characteristics of upstream＞middlestream＞downstream;(2)the climate risk level of the Yellow River Basin tends to rise,and the downstream area rises the most significantly,which is a hotspot for extreme rainfall and extreme high temperatures;(3)the urban types within the Yellow River watershed are characterized by vulnerable and high-risk cities,with significant shifts and transitions occurring over time and space.In order to effectively respond to climate change risks,climate response strategies should be differentiated,and engineering resilience,ecological resilience,economic resilience and social resilience should be synergistically promoted,so as to enhance the basin's climate resilience and sustainable development capacity.
关键词
黄河流域/气候变化/气候风险/城市韧性Key words
Yellow River Basin/climate change/climate risk/urban resilience引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社科基金重大研究专项(23VHQ019)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD043)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA086)
中国社会科学院创新工程项目(2021STSB02)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据