On Conduction Effect Evaluation of Withdrawal Risk of Rural Homestead Based on System Dynamics:A Case Study of Dayu County in Ganzhou,Jiangxi Province
There were many risks in the process of homestead withdrawal,which were interdependent and interrelated,forming a complex risk conduction effect.In order to explore the conduction of risks associated with the withdrawal of homestead,this paper identified the risk characteristics of homestead withdrawal from four dimensions-economy,society,residence and production-based on the theory of feasible capacity,and constructed a risk conduction model based on system dynamics.Taking Dayu County in Ganzhou,Jiangxi Province as the survey region,and based on 353 questionnaires,the risk conduction effect of homestead was quantitatively analyzed by using Vensim PLE simulation software.The results indicated that,assuming the existing policies remained unchanged,both the risk values of the homestead withdrawal risk system and its subsystems showed an increasing trend year by year,indicating that the implementation of relevant policies for the withdrawal of homestead should be promoted as soon as possible;The key risks along the conduction path included"family economic income","employment opportunity assistance","living cost bearing capacity",and"family risk-bearing capacity".Based on these research findings,policy recommendations were proposed from the perspective of risk conduction to prevent the risk of homestead withdrawal and improve the homestead withdrawal system,thereby providing a basis for avoiding the risk of homestead withdrawal.
system dynamicswithdrawal risk of homestead landrisk conductionconduction effectDayu County
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