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广州市"三生"空间冲突测度及模拟研究

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随着社会经济的快速发展,多功能国土空间之间的冲突日益增强,测算"三生"空间(即"生产—生活—生态"空间)冲突水平,对区域协调发展、土地资源合理配置和生态文明建设具有参考意义。本文以广州市为研究对象,借助多期土地利用数据,总结 2000-2020 年广州市"三生"空间变化特征,采用空间冲突测度模型和未来土地利用模拟,计算和预测广州市 2000-2030 年"三生"空间冲突的演变特征和趋势。结论如下:(1)2000-2020 年广州市生活生产空间面积占比大幅度上升,生产生态空间和生态生产空间面积占比都呈现下降趋势,生态空间面积呈现小幅度波动变化;(2)2000-2020 年,广州市强空间冲突数量占比逐渐增加,空间冲突水平呈上升趋势;(3)2030 年自然发展情景、生态优先情景和综合发展情景下广州市的空间冲突水平均显著上升,强空间冲突主要围绕中心城区扩张,且呈现东多西少、南多北少的特征;(4)根据综合发展情景下 2030 年广州市"三生"空间冲突分布情况,将广州市国土空间划分为五个功能区,并分区提出加强生态保护力度、积极实施生态修复,守好耕地红线、持续提升农业生态效益,优化城市空间结构,推动新型城镇化发展的对策建议。
Production-Living-Ecological Spatial Conflicts Measurement and Simulation Research in Guangzhou City
With the rapid of socio-economic development,the conflicts between multi-functional land spaces are intensifying day by day.Assessing the conflict level of production-living-ecological space is of significance in terms of harmonious regional development,rational distribution of land resources and the creation of an ecological civilization.This work takes Guangzhou City as the research object and uses multi-period land use data to summarize the defining features of the spatial transformations of Guangzhou City's production-living-ecological space from 2000 to 2020.It uses the spatial conflict measurement model and future land use simulation to calculate and forecast the evolutionary features and trends of the spatial conflict of the production-living-ecological in the city of Guangzhou for the period 2000-2030.Findings are as below:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the area share of living-production space in Guangzhou increased significantly,while the proportions of production-ecological space and ecological production space show a declining trend.The area of ecological space fluctuated slightly;(2)From 2000 to 2020,the proportion of strong spatial conflicts in Guangzhou gradually increased,and the level of spatial conflicts showed an upward trend;(3)By 2030,under the natural development scenario,the ecological priority scenario,and the comprehensive development scenario,the spatial conflict level of Guangzhou will increase significantly,and the strong spatial conflict will mainly expand around the central urban area,showing the characteristics of more in the east and south and less in the west and north;(4)According to the production-living-ecological space comprehensive development scenario of Guangzhou in 2030,Guangzhou's land space is divided into five functional areas and it will be proposed to strengthen ecological protection and actively implement ecological restoration in these zones,maintaining the red line of cultivated land and continuously improving agricultural ecological benefits,countermeasures and suggestions for improving the spatial structure of cities and facilitating the development of new types of urbanization.

"production-living-ecological"spacesspatial conflictPLUS modelmulti-scenario simulationland use

李明月、孙梓瑜、周艺霖、王安琪

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华南理工大学 公共管理学院,广东 广州 510640

广东省土地调查规划院,广东 广州 510075

自然资源部陆表系统与人地关系重点实验室,广东 广州 510075

"三生"空间 空间冲突 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 土地利用

2024

国土资源科技管理
国土资源部科技与国际合作司 成都理工大学

国土资源科技管理

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.519
ISSN:1009-4210
年,卷(期):2024.41(6)