Predictive modeling of the occurrence of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in hip fracture patients based on nomograms
Objective To explore the independent risk factors for the occurrence of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis(DVT)in patients with hip fracture and to construct and validate a column-line diagram model.Methods 227 hip fracture patients admitted to the Department of Orthopedics of Foshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2020 to June 2023 were selected as the study subjects,and the patients were divided into the modeling group(n=159)and the validation group(n=68)according to the ratio of 7∶3.The clinical data of the patients were collected,and LASSO regression and logistic regression were used to screen the independent risk factors for DVT in hip fracture patients,and a risk prediction model and column line diagram were established.Consistency index(C-index),calibration curve,and subject work characteristics(ROC)curve were used for evaluation.Results DVT occurred in 33 of 159 hip fractures in the modeling group,with an incidence rate of 20.89%.LASSO regression combined with multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that age≥70 years,diabetes mellitus,time from injury to surgery≥5 d,hypoproteinemia,and D-dimer>0.5 were the independent risk factors for DVT in patients with hip fractures.A column-line diagram model was drawn based on the above risk factors,and a column-line diagram model was constructed with the above five risk factors,and the model was well differentiated(C-index=0.932).The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good goodness-of-fit of the column-line diagram(x2=57.625,P=0.732).The area under the ROC curve for the occurrence of DVT in the modeling group and validation group was 0.932 and 0.821,respectively,and the model was accurate.Conclusion Age≥70 years,diabetes mellitus,time from injury to surgery≥5 d,hypoproteinemia,and D-dimer>0.5 are independent risk factors for DVT in hip fracture patients,and the column-line graph model constructed based on the above factors can effectively predict the risk of DVT in hip fracture patients.
hip fracturelower extremity deep vein thrombosisrisk factorsnomogram
万方数据
维普
