Restructuring of the Global Energy Supply Chain Amid Geopolitical Shifts
The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and geopolitical changes have brought about violent shocks in the energy market,profoundly affecting the global energy supply chain.This paper systematically reviews the impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy supply chain from the two aspects:China-US trade frictions and Russia-Ukraine conflict,and finds that the energy supply chain is moving towards fragmentation and regionalization.This paper presents new changes and developments in energy supply chain under the geopolitical dynamics:the EU's"de-Russification"consolidates the European and American energy supply chain;Japan,the United States,Australia and India strengthen cooperation to stabilize the"diamond-shaped"energy cooperation model;supply lines in Asia are reinforced,forming a Eurasian energy supply chain;The"OPEC"maintains its basic position to ensure global energy security;Europe accelerates its green transition towards relative energy independence.Based on the above ideas,GTAP-E model is used to simulate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and forecast the new patterns of some energy supply chains.In the context of a complex and changing international backdrop,to ensure national energy security and stable development,China must not only accelerate energy transition and ensure energy security,but also firm China's position and actively play the initiative in the world.
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