Is the Rapid Growth of US Economy Sustainable?Post-pandemic US Macroeconomic Analysis and China's Responses
From the macroeconomic data and capital market performance,the US economy appears to have demonstrated a period of robust growth since the recovery from the pandemic.Based on this observation,it was suggested that the western economy represented by the United States will reemerge as the core engine of global economic growth and the trend of global economic structure will no longer exhibit a rise in the East and a decline in the West.However,this paper does not share this view.First,the US economy was in fact characterized by a post-pandemic overheat and was not sustainable.Second,multifaceted fiscal stimulus acts enacted to counteract the pandemic have failed to exit timely after the economy has recovered substantially,leading the economy to overheat.The implementation of these acts has indeed stimulated aggregate demand,but at the same time stored up problems for the future.Third,based on the above analysis,the US economy is faced with a preponderance of downside risks in the coming two to three years,and a range of economic and social problems will be substantially amplified.We suggest that China should get adequately prepared for a pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle caused by possible rising inflation in the wake of significant tariff increases in the new Trump administration.This requires China to stick to macroeconomic policy flexibility and take various measures to boost domestic demand in order to reinvigorate growth.
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