Determination of sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations under extreme precipitation in summer in Yichang,China
Objective To analyze the influence of extreme precipitation in summer on the number of emergency visits in Yichang,China,and to determine sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations.Methods Based on data about meteorological factors and emer-gency visits of two general hospitals in Yichang from June-Auguest,2014 to 2019,a Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distribution lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the relationship between extreme precipitation(≥100 mm)in summer and the number of emergency visits for diseases of different systems,screen extreme precipitation-sensitive diseases,and explore the lag effects in populations with different characteristics.Results A total of 67 492 emergency cases were collected in Yichang during the study pe-riod.Extreme precipitation showed significant effects on the daily emergency visits in the total population and for skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases,musculoskeletal system and connective tissue diseases,and digestive system diseases,with the cumulative relative risk(CRR)at lag 14 days being 1.401(95％confidence interval[CI]:1.108-2.772),3.267(95％CI:1.407-7.587),2.639(95％CI:1.170-5.953),and 2.435(95％CI:1.368-4.335),respectively.The CRR for males,females,18 to 59-year-olds,and ≥60-year-olds were 1.403(95％CI:1.087-1.811),1.400(95％CI:1.046-1.873),1.329(95％CI:1.040-1.698),and 1.587(95％CI:1.075-2.343),respectively.Conclusion Extreme precipitation can significantly increase the risk of emergency visits in the total population.Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders,musculoskeletal system and connective tissue disorders,and digestive sys-tem disorders are sensitive diseases,and males,females,and people over 18 years of age are vulnerable populations.
extreme precipitationsensitive diseasedistributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
