Association of ambient temperature with mortality of residents in Yancheng,China:a study based on the distributed lag non-linear model
Objective To investigate the health effect of temperature on the mortality of residents in Yancheng,China.Methods Daily mortality data(total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality),meteorological data,and air pollution data of Yancheng from 2015 to 2019 were collected from local disease control and prevention departments,mete-orological bureau,and environmental monitoring centers,respectively.A distributed lag non-linear model was established to evaluate the association between temperature and mortality of residents.Results The association curves of temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality were U-shaped.The association of extreme low temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality showed a lag effect,and the highest value of relative risk(RR)was observed on day 3 of exposure,with RR values of 1.03(95%confidence interval[CI]:1.02-1.04),1.06(95%CI:1.04-1.09),and 1.02(95%CI:1.00-1.04),respectively.The association of extreme high temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality showed an acute effect,and the highest value of RR was observed on the day of exposure,with RR values of 1.19(95%CI:1.14-1.24),1.20(95%CI:1.10-1.30),and 1.25(95%CI:1.17-1.33),respectively.The highest RR value was observed for the cumulative health effect of extreme low temperature on total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality on day 14 of exposure,and the cumu-lative health effect of extreme high temperature on total non-accidental mortality reached the maximum value on day 3 of exposure,while the cumulative health effect of extreme high temperature on respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality reached the maximum value on day 7 of exposure.The death risk of men was higher than that of women at extreme low temperature and was low-er than that of women at extreme high temperature,and the population aged≥65 years had higher risks of total non-accidental mortality and circulatory disease mortality in extreme high temperature than the population aged<65 years.Conclusion Unsuitable temperature can increase the mortality and health risk of residents in Yancheng,and the lag effect of low temperature is longer than that of high tem-perature.
temperaturerisk of deathdistributed lag non-linear model
万方数据
维普
