摘要
目的 研究温度对盐城市居民死亡的健康效应.方法 分别从当地疾控部门、气象局和环境监测中心收集 2015-2019 年盐城市居民逐日死亡数据(非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病)、气象和空气污染数据.通过建立分布滞后非线性模型,评价气温与居民死亡关联.结果 气温与居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的关联呈"U"型.极端低温与居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的关联呈现滞后性,相对危险度(RR)在暴露第 3 天达到最大,分别为 1.03(95%CI:1.02～1.04)、1.06(95%CI:1.04～1.09)和 1.02(95%CI:1.00～1.04);极端高温与居民非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的关联呈现急性效应,RR 在暴露当天健康效应最大,分别为 1.19(95%CI:1.14～1.24)、1.20(95%CI:1.10～1.30)和 1.25(95%CI:1.17～1.33).极端低温对非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的累计健康效应 RR值均在 14 天后达到最大;极端高温对非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的累计健康效应分别在暴露 3、7 和 7 天后达到最大.男性死亡风险在极端低温时高于女性,在极端高温时低于女性;≥65 岁人群在极端高温时的非意外总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡风险高于<65 岁人群.结论 非适宜温度会增加盐城市居民的死亡健康风险,且低温滞后效应的持续时间比高温长.
Abstract
Objective To investigate the health effect of temperature on the mortality of residents in Yancheng,China.Methods Daily mortality data(total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality),meteorological data,and air pollution data of Yancheng from 2015 to 2019 were collected from local disease control and prevention departments,mete-orological bureau,and environmental monitoring centers,respectively.A distributed lag non-linear model was established to evaluate the association between temperature and mortality of residents.Results The association curves of temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality were U-shaped.The association of extreme low temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality showed a lag effect,and the highest value of relative risk(RR)was observed on day 3 of exposure,with RR values of 1.03(95%confidence interval[CI]:1.02-1.04),1.06(95%CI:1.04-1.09),and 1.02(95%CI:1.00-1.04),respectively.The association of extreme high temperature with total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality showed an acute effect,and the highest value of RR was observed on the day of exposure,with RR values of 1.19(95%CI:1.14-1.24),1.20(95%CI:1.10-1.30),and 1.25(95%CI:1.17-1.33),respectively.The highest RR value was observed for the cumulative health effect of extreme low temperature on total non-accidental mortality,respiratory disease mortality,and circulatory disease mortality on day 14 of exposure,and the cumu-lative health effect of extreme high temperature on total non-accidental mortality reached the maximum value on day 3 of exposure,while the cumulative health effect of extreme high temperature on respiratory disease mortality and circulatory disease mortality reached the maximum value on day 7 of exposure.The death risk of men was higher than that of women at extreme low temperature and was low-er than that of women at extreme high temperature,and the population aged≥65 years had higher risks of total non-accidental mortality and circulatory disease mortality in extreme high temperature than the population aged<65 years.Conclusion Unsuitable temperature can increase the mortality and health risk of residents in Yancheng,and the lag effect of low temperature is longer than that of high tem-perature.
基金项目
国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101200)
江苏省环境监测科研基金(1906)
江苏省双创博士人才项目(JSSCBS20222029)
维普
万方数据