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中国—东盟数字经济与双边贸易研究

China-ASEAN Digital Economy and Bilateral Trade

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文章选取2010-2021年样本数据,运用熵权法构建数字经济指标体系并测算中国—东盟数字经济发展水平,通过拓展的贸易引力模型检验数字经济对中国与东盟国家双边贸易的影响.数字经济指标测算结果表明,中国—东盟整体数字经济发展指数从2010年的13.62上升至2021年的27.47,数字经济发展迅速.新加坡、中国与马来西亚数字经济发展水平较高且保持稳步增长,其他国家数字经济发展水平相对较低,还有较大的进步空间.实证结果显示,数字经济发展可以显著提高中国—东盟双边贸易额,尤其是对东盟出口贸易的促进作用更大.从细分指数来看,数字基础设施、数字应用、数字创新竞争力与数字治理对中国—东盟双边贸易均产生显著的促进作用,影响程度有大有小,而数字发展对双边贸易没有显著的促进作用.此外,国家间存在的数字经济差异能显著扩大双边贸易规模,且对出口贸易影响作用更大.在细分指标中,仅数字基础设施差异对双边贸易有显著的促进作用.
Utilizing sample data spanning from 2010 to 2021,this paper uses the entropy weight method to construct the digital economy index system and measure the development level of the digi-tal economy in China and ASEAN countries.Furthermore,it examines the impact of the digital econo-my on bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries through an extended trade gravity model.The calculation results of digital economy indicators show that the overall development index of the digital economy in China and ASEAN has increased from 13.62 in 2010 to 27.47 in 2021,indicating that the digital economy is developing rapidly.Notably,Singapore,China,and Mali exhibit a high lev-el of digital economy maturity and consistent growth,whereas other nations lag behind,leaving ample room for further progress.The empirical results show that the development of the digital economy can significantly improve the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN,especially the export trade of ASEAN.Among the sub-indices,digital infrastructure,digital application,digital innovation competitiveness,and digital governance have all exhibited varying degrees of significance in facilitat-ing China-ASEAN trade,whereas digital development alone does not significantly contribute to this augmentation.Additionally,disparities in digital economy development across countries can signifi-cantly expand the scope of bilateral trade,with a more profound influence on export trade.Among the segmented indicators,only digital infrastructure disparities emerge as a notable driver of bilateral trade.

digital economybilateral tradegravity model of tradedigital divide

常雅丽、刘秋兰

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广西大学经济学院

数字经济 双边贸易 贸易引力模型 数字鸿沟

国家社会科学基金青年项目

18CJY059

2024

广西经济
广西壮族自治区政府发展研究中心

广西经济

ISSN:1007-2462
年,卷(期):2024.42(3)
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