RESEARCH ABOUT CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN ETHNIC AREAS:Based on Empirical Survey in Eight Ethnic Provinces and Regions
Using the population census about ethnic areas and the whole country from 1990 to 2020,this article analyzes and predicts the trends and characteristics of changes in the age structure of population and demographic dividend in ethnic areas during the period 1990～2035.The study suggests that in the ethnic areas,the age structure of population has shifted from adult-oriented in 1990 to old-age-oriented in 2035.However,there are disparities in the pace and extent of these changes,and it is expected that Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Guangxi and Guizhou will face notable aging acceleration in the next 15 years.Demographic window for provinces and regions in ethnic areas will open and close at different times and durations.By 2035,the demographic window will close in Guizhou,Guangxi,Inner Mongolia and Yunnan.Demographic dividend in ethnic areas generally increase at first and then decrease,which can primarily be classified into three types:"continuously strong","continuously weak"and"tran-siently weak".It is advisable to carefully consider the policy preparation phase before ethnic regions reach a stage of significant aging.Additionally,attention should be given to improving population quality during the population mod-ernization process.It is crucial to seize the future demographic window,and investigate the potential for new types of demographic dividend.
Age Structure of PopulationDemographic DividendDemographic WindowEthnic AreasPopula-tion Modernization
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
