基于BioMod2组合模型下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适宜生境分布变化研究
Variation of suitable habitat distribution distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith)in Yunnan based on BioMod2 combination model
袁煜林 1吕建平 2潘嫦艳 3廖周洋 1侯墨林 1邓忠坚 1张媛1
作者信息
- 1. 西南林业大学生物多样性保护学院/云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室,云南昆明 650224
- 2. 云南省植保植检站,云南昆明 650034
- 3. 陆良县植保植检站,云南曲靖 655600
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]研究气候变化背景下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的生境分布变化,旨在为农业部门开展草地贪夜蛾的防控和监测提供科学参考.[方法]通过系统收集草地贪夜蛾在云南省的分布点,并结合野外调查数据,利用BioMod2组合模型和ArcGIS 10.7软件,模拟草地贪夜蛾在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在生境分布变化.[结果]将9种物种分布模型进行组成,得到组合模型AUC、TSS和Kappa均值分别为0.994、0.980和0.943,其中,广义线性模型(GBM)、广义增强模型(GLM)、随机森林(RF)和人工神经元网络(ANN)是预测草地贪夜蛾生境分布的最优模型,表现最差的模型是表面分布区分室模型(SRE),未能通过模型精度检验.影响草地贪夜蛾分布的4个重要环境变量因素为坡度、海拔、年均气温和最高气温.当前时期草地贪夜蛾在云南的适生生境面积为32.94万km2,占云南省总面积的83.61%.在未来气候模拟条件下,适生区面积扩张,尤其是低适生区和高适生区面积明显著扩张,扩张均值分别为27.84%和12.80%;非适生区和中适生区面积减少,下降均值分别为19.69%和32.92%.[结论]基于气候变化大背景下的预测结果显示,草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适生区面积明显扩张,非适生区面积收缩,适生区有向高海拔和高纬度地区扩散的趋势,气候变化导致虫害的风险增大,应密切监控虫灾严重区域及新发地的虫情发展.
Abstract
[Objective]Prediction of habitat distribution change of Spodoptera frugiperda in Yunnan Province under the background of climate change,and it will provide scientific reference for agricultural departments to carry out the pre-vention and control of S.frugiperda and monitoring.[Method]By systematically collecting the distribution points of S.frugiperda in Yunnan Province,combined with our field survey data,then the BioMod2 combination model and ArcGIS 10.7 software was used to simulate the potential distribution change of S.frugiperda under current and future climatic con-ditions.[Result]The results show that the 9 species distribution models were composed to obtain the mean values of AUC,TSS and Kappa of the combined model being 0.994,0.980 and 0.943,respectively,among which GBM,GLM,RF and ANN are the optimal models for predicting the habitat distribution of S.frugiperda.The worst performing model is SRE,which fails the model accuracy test.The four most important environmental variables affecting S.frugiperda were slope,altitude,annual mean temperature and max temperature of warmest month.In the current period,the suitable area for S.frugiperda is 329,400 km2,accounting for 83.61%of the total area of Yunnan Province.Under the conditions of future climate simulation,the suitable area has a relatively obvious expansion trend,especially the low and high suitable areas will expand significantly,with an average expansion of 27.84%and 12.80%,respectively,while the unsuitable and medium suitable areas will decrease,the mean decline was 19.69%and 32.92%,respectively.Planting land in the high suitable areas are seriously threatened by S.frugiperda,and need to focus on prevention and control.In unsuitable areas,the damage of S.frugiperda to planted crops should be monitored in real-time.[Conclusion]Predictions based on future climate change show that the potential suitable areas for S.frugiperda in Yunnan Province has obviously expanded,and there is a trend of spreading to the high latitude and altitude areas.Our results suggest that the climate change may result in the risk of continuous spread and harm increasing.Therefore,more efforts should be made to study and control this inva-sive agricultural pest.In particular,close attention should be paid to the development of S.frugiperda situation in the severely affected areas and newly affected areas.
关键词
草地贪夜蛾/BioMod2组合模型/生境分布变化/风险防控Key words
Spodoptera frugiperda/BioMod2 combination model/Changes in habitat distribution/Risk control引用本文复制引用
基金项目
兴滇英才支持计划青年人才专项(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0207)
云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室开放基金项目(ZKJS-S-202203)
云南省环境保护专项(632108)
出版年
2023
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据