Impact of European Union carbon border adjustment mecha-nism on China's agricultural product trade
[Objective]To calculate the hidden carbon in China's segmented agricultural product trade,analyze the impact of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)on China's agricultural product trade,and provide reference basis for domestic agricultural product production and circulation as well as international agricul-tural product import and export policy formulation.[Method]Based on the GTAP-E database,an input-output table was constructed,and the input-output method was used to calculate the implied carbon in China's agricultural product trade.A simulation scenario was designed based on the latest European Union CBAM implementation points to analyze the impact of European Union carbon tariffs on China's agricultural product trade.[Result]The carbon tariffs imposed by the Euro-pean Union would change the production structure of agricultural products in China,resulting in a slight increase in the output value of most agricultural products.The larger the coverage of the tax industry,the greater the increase in output value;the impact on export volume varied with the coverage of taxable industries.When carbon tariffs were imposed only on heavy industries,the export volume of China's agricultural products increased.When carbon tariffs were imposed on all industries including the agricultural product sector,the export volume of China's high carbon agricultural product sec-tor,which had a larger export volume to the European Union,changed from an increase to a decrease.The carbon tariffs imposed by the European Union would change the structure of China's agricultural product import and export market.When the taxation scope covered the agricultural product sector,China's agricultural product exports would gradually shift from the European Union market to other trading partner countries such as Japan,America,ASEAN,and Africa,while imports would gradually shift from the European Union market to ASEAN countries,BRICS countries,and other countries.[Suggestion]The implementation of CBAM by the European Union has a negative impact on China's agricul-tural production and trade,directly leading to an increase in trade costs for Chinese export enterprises,which is a non-tariff barrier disguised as"green".Suggestions for responding from three aspects:①building a full industry chain system to enhance international market bargaining power;②transforming towards low-carbon agriculture and developing green agriculture;③improve the domestic carbon pricing system and enhance the ability to align with international standards.
agricultural product tradecarbon tariffinput-output tableGTAP-E modelEuropean Union
万方数据
维普
