[Objective]To predict the potential geographic distribution of Mimosa diplotricha C.Wright and Mimosa diplotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp in Hainan,and to determine the invasion risk level of the 2 invasive plants in Hainan,so as to provide reference for the management of invasive plants and control of invasive plants in Hainan.[Method]The MaxEnt model and geographic information system(GIS)were used to assess the main environmental varia-bles governing Mimosa diplotricha C.Wright and Mimosa diplotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp,and to simu-late and delineate the potential geographic distribution of the 2 invasive plants in Hainan;qualitative and quantitative inva-sion risk analyses of the 2 invasive plants were carried out to determine the level of their risk.The simulation results showed that area under a receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of Mimosa diplotricha C.Wright and Mimosa dip-lotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp were 0.956 and 0.996 respectively,which was much higher than the random prediction value(0.500),indicating that the prediction results of the model had high confidence.[Result]The model pre-diction results showed that in China,the suitable habitats for 2 invasive plants were mainly distributed in the southern re-gions,particularly in provinces such as Guangdong,Hainan and Fujian.In Hainan,the potential suitable areas were mainly concentrated in the northeastern part and showed a trend of spreading towards the southwest,which was basically consistent with the distribution areas of actual survey results.According to the latitude distribution prediction results,Mi-mosa diplotricha C.Wright mainly distributed between 50º northern latitude and 50º southern latitude,while Mimosa dip-lotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp mainly distributed between 10º northern latitude and 30º northern latitude.Based on the risk index system criteria layer assignment,the calculated risk value R for Mimosa diplotricha C.Wright was 69.15,which was higher than 61.00,classifying it as a particularly harmful species;the risk value R for Mimosa dip-lotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp was 58.00,falling between 29.50 and 61.00,classifying it as a highly harmful species.[Conclusion]Mimosa diplotricha C.Wright is a particularly hazardous species and its introduction should be strictly prohibited;Mimosa diplotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp is highly hazardous and its introduction must be strictly restricted.Since the 2 invasive plants have been introduced into China,necessary emergency measures should be taken to carry out quarantine,monitoring and eradication,to prevent them from further spreading and causing greater harm.
关键词
巴西含羞草/无刺含羞草/MaxEnt模型预测/入侵风险分析/海南省
Key words
Mimosa diplotricha C.Wright/Mimosa diplotricha var.inermis(Adelbert)Veldkamp/MaxEnt model prediction/invasion risk anlysis/Hainan province
维普
万方数据