CMA-WSP2.0在江苏地表太阳辐射预报中的检验评估
Validation and evaluation of CMA-WSP2.0 in surface solar radiation forecasting in Jiangsu
张敏 1袁心仪 1张顾 1王博妮 1孙明 2黄亮 1陈正洪 3葛行成 2周雪城1
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省气象服务中心,南京 210008;中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,南京 210008
- 2. 江苏省气象服务中心,南京 210008
- 3. 湖北省气象服务中心,武汉 430205
- 折叠
摘要
基于江苏省南京、淮安及吕泗三个标准辐射站2023年6月至12月总辐射观测数据,对中国气象局风能太阳能气象预报系统(CMA-WSP2.0)的地表太阳辐射产品进行检验评估.结果表明:(1)CMA-WSP2.0对南京、淮安和吕泗3d内太阳辐射的整体预报效果较好,逐15 min第1d的预报与观测值相关系数可达0.85、0.87和0.86,随着预报时效增加,预报效果逐渐降低.(2)以淮安站为例,10-12月预报效果明显优于6-9月,说明秋冬季节明显高于夏季,其中11月预报效果最好,准确率高达92.2%,而7月预报效果最差,准确率仅66.6%,这与梅雨期强降水过程多、天气变化复杂有关.(3)从日变化来看,在11:00-15:00时段模式预报效果偏低,尤其7月.未来将探索应用多种方法对CMA-WSP2.0预报产品进行订正优化以提升其适用性.
Abstract
Based on the total radiation observation data of Nanjing,Huai'an,and Lvsi stations in Jiangsu Province from June to December 2023,the surface solar radiation products of the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Forecasting System(CMA-WSP2.0)were examined and evaluated.The results are as follows:(1)CMA-WSP2.0 performs well in overall forecasting of the surface solar radiation at Nanjing,Huai'an and Lvsi stations within three days.The correlation coefficients between the forecast and observation values for these three stations on the first day are 0.85,0.87 and 0.86 for 15 min intervals respectively.As the forecasting time increases,the correlation gradually decreases;(2)as for Huai'an Station,the forecast effect from October to December is significantly better than that from June to September,indicating that the forecast effect in autumn and winter seasons are significantly higher than that in summer.The forecast effect in November is the highest,with an accuracy of 92.2%,while in July,the forecast effect is the worst,only 66.6%,which is related to the frequent heavy rainfall processes and complex weather changes during the rainy season;(3)From the perspective of daily changes,the predictive performance of CMA-WSP2.0 is relatively low during the period of 11:00-15:00,especially in July.Next,multiple methods will be explored to revise and optimize the CMA-WSP2.0 forecast products in order to improve its applicability.
关键词
CMA-WSP2.0/地表太阳辐射/检验评估/准确率Key words
CMA-WSP2.0/surface solar radiation/validation and evaluation/accuracy引用本文复制引用
基金项目
江苏省气象局青年基金(KQ202210)
江苏省气象局青年基金(KQ202310)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据