基于云D-S证据理论的极端天气下电力系统应急能力评判
Emergency capability evaluation of power systems under extreme weather conditions based on cloud D-S evidence theory
王建楠 1李元良 1温晓寒 1赖元威 1卢军严 1郑宇琦 1何青 1郭梽炜1
作者信息
- 1. 广西电网有限责任公司南宁供电局,南宁 530031
- 折叠
摘要
以提高应对极端天气下电力系统突发事件能力为目标,将电力系统应急能力作为研究对象,提出基于云模型和证据理论融合的评估算法.采用层次分析法和熵值法相结合的方法确定应急指标权重,运用云模型做为基础对电力系统应急能力进行评估,以解决评价指标模糊性和随机性的问题,并引入D-S证据理论对指标进行综合评估,构建极端天气下电力系统的应急能力评估模型.通过案例证明,该方法可以有效准确地定量和定性评估电力网系统的应急能力,为提高电力网系统的应急管理能力提供科学依据.
Abstract
This article aims to improve the ability to respond to power system emergencies under extreme weather conditions,the emergency response capability of power system is taken as the research object,and an evaluation algorithm based on the fusion of cloud models and evidence theory is proposed.The combination of analytic hierarchy process and entropy method are used to determine the weights of emergency indicators,the cloud model is used as the basis to evaluate the emergency capacity of the power system,which is used to solve the problems of fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators,and the D-S evidence theory is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the indicators,and then a model for evaluating the emergency capacity of the power system under extreme weather conditions is constructed.It is proved through cases that this method can effectively and accurately evaluate the emergency capability of power grid systems quantitatively and qualitatively,and provide a scientific basis for improving the emergency management capability of power grid systems.
关键词
云模型/D-S证据理论/层次分析法/熵值法:电力系统应急能力Key words
cloud model/D-S evidence theory/analytic hierarchy process/entropy method/emergency capability of power system引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据