深圳台风灾害综合风险预报预警服务探索与实践
Exploration and practice of comprehensive risk forecast and early warning services of typhoon disasters in Shenzhen
李明华 1王书欣 2徐婷 1赵春阳 2王明洁 1贺佳佳 1兰红平1
作者信息
- 1. 深圳市气象局/深圳市气象台,广东 深圳 518040;深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室,广东 深圳 518040
- 2. 深圳市气象局/深圳市气象台,广东 深圳 518040;深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室,广东 深圳 518040;深圳市国家气候观象台,广东 深圳 518040
- 折叠
摘要
通过对1822号台风"山竹"和2118号台风"圆规"预报预警服务实例进行对比分析,介绍"31631"递进式预报预警气象服务方法在超大城市深圳开展台风灾害综合风险研判的探索与实践,基于深圳台风预警信号为先导的部门应急联动和社会响应机制,提出三种台风灾害宏观风险研判方法即台风风雨影响要素预报分析、基于历史重现期的极端性分析和基于概率预报的不确定性分析,以及台风预警信号分析.本地历史台风灾害库和预报员综合分析能力可为台风灾害综合风险预报预警服务质量提升提供有力支撑.
Abstract
By comparatively analysing the forecast and warning services of Typhoon"Mangkhut"in 2018 and Typhoon"Kompasu"in 2021 as examples,this paper introduce the exploration and practice on the"31631"progressive forecast and early warning meteorological service methodology for the comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in Shenzhen,and proposed a simple and practical macro risk assessment method,and puts forward three typhoon disaster macro-risk assessment methods based on the departmental emergency co-ordination and social response mechanism led by typhoon warnings in Shenzhen:typhoon wind and rain influencing element forecast analysis,extreme analysis based on historical return period and uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic forecasting,and typhoon warning signal analysis.The local historical typhoon disaster library and the comprehensive analysis capability of forecasters can provide strong support for the improvement of the quality of comprehensive risk forecasting and early warning services for typhoon disasters.
关键词
台风灾害/综合风险/影响预报/风险预警Key words
typhoon disaster/comprehensive risk/impact forecasting/risk warning引用本文复制引用
基金项目
世界气象组织超大城市智慧气象服务公私参与示范项目(RA II-17-J-PP-1)
中国工程院战略研究咨询项目()
中国气象局气象软科学重点项目(2022ZDIANXM14)
中国气象局决策气象服务专项面上项目(14)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据