Review of the characteristics and forecasting warnings of high-impact severe convective weather in Guangxi in 2023
A comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of high-impact severe convective weather and the forecasting and warning challenges in Guangxi in 2023 was conducted using multiple data sources.The results show that:(1)There was a total of 5 regional and above severe convective weather events throughout the year,which were generally fewer compared with the climate state.Hailstorms were concentrated from March to May.Thunderstorm gust mainly occurred from March to September,with a maximum wind speed of 34.9 m·s-1.(2)Hail-producing supercells were mainly triggered at fronts and frontal warm zone under conditions of strong convective instability,energy,and vertical wind shear in frontal warm zones.Therefore,forecasters should be concerned about the rapid development of hail super monomers and issue early warning signals in advance.(3)Squall-line wind events under a southwest vortex background were triggered by ground stationary fronts and dry lines;short-term forecasters should consider the self-organising effect of linear convective to adjust the falling area to the south.(4)Numerical model forecasting capabilities were poor for elevated and warm-sector hail weather,and it is necessary to strengthen the mechanistic research to improve the objective forecasting and warning technology.
convective stormsforecasting and warningsupercellsquall line
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
