Analysis on the cause and forecast deviation of extreme warm-region flood-causing rainstorm during"22·06"
Using conventional meteorological observation,Doppler weather radar detection,satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data and other multi-source meteorological data,the cause and forecast deviation of the extreme flood-causing rainstorm process in the warm region of Guangxi from June 17 to 21,2022 are analyzed by applying statistical and meteorological diagnosis methods.The results show that:(1)this process is caused by the combined influence of the upper-level trough,low vortex shear and low-level southwesterly jets,resulting in mainly warm-sector convective heavy precipitation.(2)The strong precipitation echoes have obvious characteristics of backward propagation,and there is a convergence line of northerly wind and southerly winds in the vicinity of the strong echo belt,which is conducive to the maintenance and development of convective system,forming a"train effect",resulting in local extreme heavy precipitation.(3)The anomaly distribution of multiple physical quantities corresponds to the extreme precipitation region,among which the K index and the whole-layer precipitable amount have a good correspondence with the extreme precipitation region.(4)The weak intensity of the 500 hPa upper-air trough and the deviation of the location of the 850 hPa jet stream in the model prediction lead to the westward and northward location of the area of heavy precipitation with weak intensity.
warm-region rainstormextreme precipitationsmall-to medium-scaleanomaly degree of physical quantity
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