Analysis of the causes and numerical forecasting performance of persistent rainstorm in Guangxi during June 22-25,2023
Based on the conventional meteorological observations,ERA5 reanalysis data,ECMWF and CMA model forecast products,the characteristics of the evolutions and physical quantities of the persistent rainstorm process in Guangxi during June 22-25,2023 are analyzed,and the prediction performance of the numerical models is assessed and analyzed.The results show that the stable atmospheric circulation background provides favorable conditions for the persistent rainstorm and the coupling effects of the upper-middle-and lower-level mesoscale weather systems provide favorable dynamical conditions for the rainstorm process.The profound water vapor conditions and sufficient atmospheric unstable energy provide favorable atmospheric conditions for the occurrence of the rainstorm,and the southwesterly monsoon is stably maintained and strengthened at night to continuously replenish the water vapor and unstable energy for the rainstorm area.Besides,the changing characteristics of the configuration of the southwesterly jets and the environmental dynamic conditions are consistent with the variations of the precipitation intensity features.Therefore,the operational forecasting service can comprehensively utilize the prediction of heavy rainfall fallout areas from large-scale numerical models and of rainfall magnitude from mesoscale numerical models to make comprehensive revisions to the rainstorm forecasts.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
