Future climate change prediction over Guangxi based on BCC-CSM2-MR model
The performance of simulating climate characteristics over Guangxi was evaluated using the BCC-CSM2-MR product by the National Climate Center global climate model from CMIP6,and the grid observation dataset.Additionally,climate change projections for Guangxi from 2021 to 2064 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were studied.The results show that the model has a good simulation capability of historical temperature,precipitation and extreme climate indexes over Guangxi,and the temperature simulation is better than the precipitation simulation.The model is able to simulate the radial distribution pattern of temperature and some areas with large precipitation values.Different future scenarios projections suggest a significant linear upward trend in temperature,with the degree of warming increasing from the northwest to the east and south of Guangxi.Precipitation is expected to maintain its decadal oscillation characteristics and increase slightly,and the area of large value of the increase is mainly located in northwestern Guangxi over the next 50 years.Under SSP5-8.5 scenario in the middle of the 21st century,annual temperature and precipitation will increase by 1.6 to 2.5° C and 3％to 21％,respectively.Extremely high temperature is projected to rise and intensify,while the extremely low-temperature index is anomalously high.The extreme precipitation index is also expected to increase.Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,Guangxi is likely to undergo winter droughts to some extent in the near term of the 21st century(2021-2040),and the northeastern Guangxi may experience a more severe period of extreme low temperatures in the mid-21st century(2041-2060).Flooding caused by extreme precipitation is more likely to occur in the northwestern Guangxi under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.Overall,these findings reveal a higher likelihood of increased high-temperature heatwave events,relatively fewer low-temperature events and the occurrence of greater intensity of extreme cold events and extreme precipitation events in some regions of Guangxi in the future.
万方数据
维普
