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漓江上中游径流阶段性变化及人类活动影响程度分析

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为探究漓江流域径流阶段性变化特性以及人类活动对其变化的影响程度,本文基于桂林和阳朔水文站1968-2022年实测径流、降雨资料,采用距平累积法、有序聚类法、线性拟合法对径流序列进行阶段性划分和突变检验,并对人类活动影响程度进行量化分析.结果表明:①1968-2022年漓江上中游年径流量分为枯-丰-枯-丰4个阶段,中游较上游枯水阶段短、丰水阶段长;②桂林站、阳朔站径流序列分别在2018、2014年发生突变;③突变后桂林站、阳朔站径流变化受人类活动影响分别占42.61%、34.24%,受降雨量影响占57.39%、65.76%,降雨量仍然是影响漓江上中游年径流量变化的主要因素.
Runoff periodic change in upper and middle reaches of Lijiang River and influence degree analysis of human activities
In order to study the runoff periodic change characteristics and the influence degree of human activities in Lijiang River basin,based on the runoff and precipitation measuring data of Guilin and Yangshuo Hydrological Sta-tions from1968 to 2022,by use of anomaly accumulation method,ordered clustering method and linear fitting meth-od,stage division and mutation testing of runoff series as well as quantitative analysis of the impact of human activi-ties were conducted.The results of analysis demonstrate that:①From 1968 to 2022,the annual runoff in the upper and middle reaches of Lijiang River can be divided into four stages successively:low-,high-,low-and high-water,with the low-water period and high-water period of middle reaches being shorter and longer than that of upper reaches respectively;②The runoff series of Guilin and Yangshuo Hydrological Stations had abrupt changes in 2018 and 2014 respectively;③After the abrupt change,the runoff changes of Guilin Station and Yangshuo Station were influenced by human activities with the percentage up to 42.61%and 34.24%respectively,and were influenced by precipitation up to 57.39%and 65.76%respectively.Rainfall is still the major factor affecting the annual runoff change in the middle and upper reaches of Lijiang River.

runoff changehigh-water and low-water periodsabrupt change analysisimpact of human activitiesLijiang River

许景璇

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桂林水文中心,广西 桂林 541100

径流变化 丰枯水期 突变分析 人类活动影响 漓江

2024

广西水利水电
广西水利电力勘测设计研究院

广西水利水电

影响因子:0.135
ISSN:1003-1510
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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