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平均数趋势整理法在贵港市降雨预测中的应用

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月、季天气趋势预测是短期气候预测的重点和难点,也是防汛抗旱决策部署的科学依据.本文在整理贵港市2000-2022年共23年实测降雨资料的基础上,分析贵港市降雨季节变化规律,采用平均数趋势整理法对降雨资料进行建模,预测了贵港市2023年各月的降雨量.预测结果与历史资料的分布趋势基本吻合.
Application of average trend sorting method in rainfall prediction for Guigang City
The prediction of monthly and seasonal weather trends is the key and difficulty of short-term climate pre-diction,and is the scientific basis for decision-making and deployment of flood control and drought relief.Based on the measured rainfall data of Guigang City from 2000 to 2022,the author analyzed the rainfall seasonal change law of Guigang,established a rainfall data model by average trend sorting method,predicted the monthly precipitation of 2023.The predicted results are basically consistent with the distribution trend of historical data.

hydrologyrainfallaverage trend sorting methodGuigang City

周恩

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贵港水文中心平南水文中心站,广西 平南 537000

水文学 降雨 平均数趋势整理法 贵港市

2024

广西水利水电
广西水利电力勘测设计研究院

广西水利水电

影响因子:0.135
ISSN:1003-1510
年,卷(期):2024.(5)