Application of time series prediction of failure risk of buried gas pipeline in Changzhou
In order to study the time effect of the failure risk of buried gas pipeline in Changzhou,four main factors affecting the failure probability were selected,and the time effect of each influencing factor was analyzed according to the grey model GM(1,1).On this basis,the grey model and neural network were organically combined to construct the grey neural network model(GNNM).Then,the grey neural network model was used to analyze the time effect of the comprehensive failure probability of Changzhou buried gas pipeline under the influence of various factors,and the failure probability was converted into the early warning failure probability with the help of the failure probability con-version function.Finally,the failure risk early warning of Changzhou buried gas pipeline in 2027 was realized.The warning results show that,in 2027,the risk level of buried gas pipelines in most areas of the study area will enter high risk,and the risk of a small part of the southeast and northeast regions will become high risk.Therefore,it is necessary to take relevant measures as soon as possible to restrain the continuous rise of failure risk and prevent the occurrence of disaster caused by failure.
buried gas pipelinefailure time effectGM modelgray neural networkfailure probability
万方数据
维普
