A Jianghuai rainstorm in 2003 is simulated by WRF model.Furthermore,some sensitive experiments and ensemble studies are done based on Kain-Fritsch-ETA (KF-ETA) scheme.The results reveal that:The minimum net environment entrainment rate and cumulus radius have notable influence on the weather forecast,mainly reflected in the vertical distribution of all kinds of physical variables and grid-scale rainfall distribution.Because of the sensitivity,the location and the scale of the rainfall forecast have been improved through the ensemble mean experiments generated by KF-ETA scheme,as well as the biases of ‘ too dry' and ‘ too moisture' are improved compared with the single random prediction.Meanwhile,some uncertainties are mainly shown in the region with complicated terrain and the rainfall center.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
