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太阳活动与高原积雪及东亚环流的年代际相关分析

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太阳活动影响气候系统的研究对认识全球气候变化具有重要的意义,本文利用太阳射电通量资料、太阳总辐照度重建资料和太阳黑子数观测资料,应用相关统计方法研究了太阳活动与冬季青藏高原积雪以及东亚地区大气环流的年代际相关关系.结果表明:在去掉太阳11年显著周期的更长时间尺度上,太阳活动超前调节着冬季青藏高原积雪以及东亚大气环流,其中高原积雪滞后太阳射电通量第4年滑动平均年相关最显著,相关系数达到0.8013,通过0.05的Monte-Carlo显著性水平检验;高原冬季积雪与北极涛动和东亚冬季风之间也存在显著的同期和滞后年代际相关关系.
Analysis on Interdecadal Correlation between Solar Activity and Snow Depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and East Asian Atmospheric Circulation in Winter
The sun is the main energy source of the earth's climate system.Recognizing the influence of the solar activity on the earth's climate system will improve the climate prediction accuracy.On the basis of knowing the solar activity rules on short term and long term time scales,more further studies about the response of components of the climate system to the solar activity is necessary.These studies proved that the solar activity is an important factor to change the climate system.Because previous studies show that the present global warming belongs to reasonable extent of climate system's fluctuations,it is necessary to explore the natural factor's role further.There still has larger space for investigating the influence of solar activity on climate system,also,some unknown fields have not been involved.Snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is one of the key physical factors affecting climate system,however,relationship between snow and the solar activity is still not accessed.Solar radio flux (SRF),solar sunspot number (SSN) and total solar irradiance (TSI) are commonly used parameters of solar activity,which have different physical meanings.For the first time,this paper reveals the interdecadal correlation between solar activity and winter snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the typical circulation pattern over the East Asia,that is the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon.In the future,in-depth study on the influence of solar activity on the climate system will be done,and the physical process and physical mechanism will be further revealed in the later work.Arctic Oscillation and East Asian winter monsoon have obvious relation to the snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and solar activity,and the interdecadal correlations between them are discussed in this paper.Some researches about the solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon on interdecadal time scales (longer than 11 years cycle period) is very rare.This paper studies the interdecadal correlation between the solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon and discusses the interdecadal correlation between the winter snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Arctic Oscillation and East Asian winter monsoon.The results show that on interdecadal time scale,over 11 years solar cycle,the sun modulated the change of winter snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and East Asian atmospheric circulation ahead.At the fourth 11-years lag year,through Monte-Carlo test method,the correlation coefficient between snow depth and SRF is 0.8013,which passes 0.05 significant level.Our study also exposes that winter snow depth over the Qinghai-Xiang Plateau has significant contemporary and lag correlation with Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon on long time scale.

Snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang PlateauThe solar activityInterdecadal correlation analysisArctic Oscillation (AO)East Asian winter monsoon

宋燕、李智才、肖子牛、张菁、李宏毅、朱玉祥

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中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081

中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072

山西省气候中心,太原030006

中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

沈阳市气象局生态与农业气象中心,沈阳110168

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青藏高原积雪 太阳活动 年代际相关分析 北极涛动 东亚冬季风

国家自然科学基金国家重大科学研究计划中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原气象开放基金

415750912012CB957803LPM2012004

2016

10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00059

高原气象
中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

高原气象

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.193
ISSN：1000-0534
年,卷(期)：2016.35(5)
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