摘要
近来,我国房产市场交易量低落,认为我国房产价格泡沫化的论调盛行.我国房产价格是否脱离了经济基本面,严重虚拟化?本文讨论了我国房产价格受到居民收入的影响力度和我国房价上涨所产生的实体经济中的财富效应.基于广义虚拟经济新的视角,通过建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,实证分析2003年到2013年的收入、股价、房价和消费的季度数据,我们发现股价因素对我国房地产价格波动的解释能力明显小于工资收入基本面所发挥的作用;同时,房地产价格上涨对消费的正向促进作用很微弱,远小于金融资产.这说明,我国房价中的金融化部分是有限的,我国房地产的虚拟化程度较低.
Abstract
The sales of real estate recently decrease and the arguments about the bubbles of housing prices are popular in China. Do China's housing prices stay far away from the economic fundamentals, as the so-called serious virtualization? We study the influence of family incomes on housing prices and the wealth effects of the raising housing prices in the real economy. Based on the new view of the generalized ifctitious economy, we empirically analyze the quarterly data of family incomes, share prices, housing prices and consumptions during the period from 2003 to 2013 with the SVAR model. We ifnd that the inlfuence of share prices on hous-ing prices are much less than wages and that the effects of housing prices are weak on consumptions. The ifnancialization of housing prices is rather limited and the virtualization of real estate is not serious in China.
基金项目
广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目(GX2011-1018Y)
教育部重大课题攻关项目(13JZD006)
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据