首页|纳雍珙桐始花期与气候因子的相关性及预报模型

纳雍珙桐始花期与气候因子的相关性及预报模型

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为纳雍县珙桐自然保护区始花期的准确预报及其在旅游推介工作上的应用提供科学依据, 利用2012—2016年纳雍县珙桐始花期物候观测资料和纳雍国家一般站地面气象资料, 采用相关性分析法与月动力延伸预测模式业务系统 (DERF 2.0)相结合, 研究珙桐始花期与气温、降水和日照等气象因子的相关性, 并建立珙桐始花期预报模型.结果表明:气温与珙桐始花期相关性密切;以气温作为预报因子, 用5日滑动平均气温稳定通过15℃作为预报指标, 建立了基于DERF 2.0的珙桐始花期预报模型, 该模型的预测准确率达100%.
Correlation Between Early Flowering Period of Davidia involucrate in Nayong County and Climatic Factors and its Forecast Model
The correlations between early flowering period of Davidia involucrate and the meteorological factors of temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration were studied and the forecast model of early flowering period of D.involucrate was established by the correlation analysis and DERF 2.0 according to the data about early flowering phenology of D.involucrate and ground meteorological data recorded by Nayong meteorological station to provide the scientific reference for accurate forecast of early flowering period of D.involucrate and tourism recommendation of D.involucrate Nature Reserve in Nayong County.Result:Temperature is closely related to early flowering period of D.involucrate.The forecast model of early flowering period of D.involucrate based on DERF 2.0 is established by taking temperature as a forecast factor and using 5 dsteadily moving average temperature above 15 ℃ as the forecast index.

DERF 2.0early flowering period of Davidia involucrateforecast modelDavidia involucrate Nature ReserveNayongGuizhou

郑园、谢明、成春丽、赵庭飞、周庶、刘兴平

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贵州省纳雍县气象局,贵州 纳雍 553300

贵州省毕节市气象局,贵州 毕节 551700

贵州省织金县气象局,贵州 织金 552100

贵州纳雍珙桐省级自然保护区管理局,贵州 纳雍 553300

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DERF 2.0 珙桐始花期 预报模型 珙桐自然保护区 纳雍 贵州

贵州省气象局青年基金[

黔气科合QN 2017 12

2019

贵州农业科学
贵州省农业科学院

贵州农业科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.642
ISSN:1001-3601
年,卷(期):2019.47(1)
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