基于时热积温的水稻热害影响模型及等级指标研究
Research on Impact Model and Grading Indicators of Rice Heat Damage Based on Hours Thermal Accumulated Temperature
汪天颖 1帅细强 1李民华 2杨嫔玲 2黄安凤 2汪天柯3
作者信息
- 1. 湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南 长沙 410118;气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南 长沙 410118
- 2. 怀化农业气象试验站,湖南 怀化 418000
- 3. 岳阳县气象局,湖南 岳阳 414100
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]构建基于时热积温的水稻热害影响模型和等级指标,为精细化水稻热害减灾服务提供依据.[方法]于 2021-2022年在湖南怀化开展水稻透明薄膜盖棚增温大田试验,以Y两优 911为供试品种,结合逐小时气温数据,采用二次方程拟合、LSD方差显著性分析法、相关分析法,筛选构建基于不同高温阈值时热积温的一季稻孕穗期至成熟期结实率高温影响定量评估模型及等级指标,并进行独立样本验证.[结果]结实率减少值与 35～40℃高温阈值的时热积温关联紧密,其中,以 35℃高温阈值相关性最高(P＜0.001),其次为 36℃(P＜0.005)、37℃(P＜0.010)阈值.结实率减少 2%、4%、8%分别为轻、中、重热害的致灾临界值,各高温阈值及其对应轻、中、重热害时热积温下限分别为35℃,146℃·h、196℃·h、365℃·h;36℃,112℃·h、176℃·h、334℃·h;37℃,85℃·h、140℃·h、270℃·h.模型和指标验证结果与实测值的一致性较好,其中,以 35℃高温阈值的模型具有相比最低的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)及最高的相关系数(r),且指标验证与实际数据符合程度最高.[结论]基于时热积温的水稻热害模型及等级指标能较好反映结实率受高温影响程度,可应用于水稻生产热害监测预警、防灾减灾服务.
Abstract
[Objective]The impact model and grading indicators of rice heat damage based on hours thermal accumulated temperature were constructed to provide basis for carrying out refined services of reducing the rice heat damage.[Method]A rice field experiment with covering transparent film for improving temperature was carried out in Huaihua of Hunan from 2021 to 2022.Taking Y Liangyou 911 as the experimental variety,combining with hourly air temperature data,using quadratic equation fitting,LSD analysis of variance significance and correlation analysis,the model and grading indicators for quantitative assessment of high-temperature impacts on the fruiting rate from the booting stage to maturity stage of one-season rice were screened and established based on the hours thermal accumulated temperature at different high temperature thresholds,and was validated with independent samples.[Result]The reduction of rice fruiting rate was closely related to the hours thermal accumulated temperature of high-temperature threshold from 35-40℃,with the highest correlation with the 35℃(P＜0.001),followed by 36℃(P＜0.005)and 37℃(P＜0.010).The 2%,4%,and 8%reduction in fruiting rate were the thresholds causing light,medium,and severe heat damage,respectively.The high-temperature thresholds and the lower limit of their corresponding hours thermal accumulated temperature for light,medium,and severe heat damage was 35℃,146℃·h,196℃·h and 365℃·h;36℃,112℃·h,176℃·h and 334℃·h;37℃,85℃·h,140℃·h and 270℃·h,respectively.The model and indicators validation results had good agreement with the measurements,among which the model with 35℃ as the high temperature threshold had the lowest mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE)and the highest correlation coefficient(r),and the index validation results had the best consistency with the measured data.[Conclusion]The model for rice heat damage and grading indicators based on hourly thermal accumulated temperature indexes can well reflect the actual situation of fruiting rate affected by high temperature,and can be applied to the monitoring and early warning of heat damage in rice production,disaster prevention and mitigation services.
关键词
高温/时热积温/一季稻/生育时段/定量评估模型/热害等级指标/Y两优911Key words
high temperature/hours thermal accumulated temperature/one-season rice/growth period/quantita-tive assessment model/grading indicators for heat damage/Y Liangyou 911引用本文复制引用
基金项目
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2020JJ5299)
国家重点研发计划项目子课题(2022YFD2300203)
湖南省气象局创新发展重点专项(CXFZ2023-ZDZX02)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据