Research on Assessment Method of Hailstorm Disaster Intensity in Guizhou
To rapidly assess the intensity and extent of individual hail events,and timely provide references for post-disaster rescue,survey,and disaster insurance-related checking,we carried out this research within the framework of hail prevention and forecasting indicators in Guizhou mountainous areas by using the Doppler weather radar data and sounding data of 141 hail events in Guizhou Province in 2021-2023,as well as hail area observation data and records of disaster losses.In this article,qualitative assessment results from hindcasted historical data are compared with grid-processed hail data for consistency.Thresholds,which have high accuracy,cover more than 94％of hail-observation site locations and show good convergence around hail areas,are determined as the basis for single-event identification.A weighted time integration method is employed to establish a hail process assessment model,which can provide a fine-scale evaluation of hail processes with a spatial resolution of 1 km.To validate the accuracy of the assessment results,a case study involving unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing is conducted.The retrieved results are compared with assessment results.The findings reveal that 22 out of 25 hail-hit spots are situated in severe zones of the assessment range,and the remaining three are within the moderate disaster ranges,as indicated by the assessment.The investigation aligns with the intensity range and distribution derived from the fine-scale hail assessment.In addition,a comparative analysis is also performed based on the records of losses from the wind and hail disasters and the assessed data of hail-impact area in Liupanshui City.The results indicate that the pairwise correlation coefficients between the assessed areas of three different hail intensities and direct economic loss data all exceed 0.8,passing a hypothesis test at the 0.01 significance level,which shows a significant positive correlation.The verification results indicate that this proposed assessment method has a commendable ability in reflecting the actual extent of losses accurately in the intensity evaluation of hail-prone regions.
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