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湖北主要矿产资源供需分析及对策建议

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湖北省作为长江经济带重要组成部分,产业结构持续调整,新兴产业发展迅速,矿产资源需求旺盛,然而进入后疫情时代,矿产资源供需形势复杂.准确预测未来湖北省主要矿产资源消费需求量并分析供需变化形势具有重要意义,可为相关政府部门规划部署下一步工作提供资料支撑.在国内外矿产资源总体形势分析基础上,收集整理湖北省域范围主要矿种历年勘查开发利用及消费数据,基于矿产资源人均消费"S"形规律判断增长阶段,采用回归分析对历史消费数据进行函数拟合,前推预测 2030 年矿产资源需求量,结合资源禀赋、矿产勘查开发和产业发展情况,开展其供需分析并提出对策建议.结果表明,湖北省石油、铁、铜、金供需失衡明显,但页岩气极具潜力;磷、盐供应充足,可覆盖部分外省需求,但供给质量不高;水泥用灰岩和建筑用石料供需较平衡,但矿山布局不合理,基础保障能力不强.建议加快实施新一轮找矿战略突破行动,推进页岩气勘探开发,加大老矿山深边部勘查力度,增加能源和战略性金属矿产资源储量;持续做好磷、盐保护性开采工作,提升供给质量;进一步优化建材类矿产露天矿山布局,加强综合利用,多渠道利用砂石资源.
Supply and demand analysis of major mineral resources in Hubei Province with countermeasures and suggestions
As an important part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,Hubei Province continues to promote its industrial structure,and its emerging industries develops rapid with strong demand for mineral resources.The supply and demand situation of mineral resources is complex.It is of great significance to accurately predict the consumption demand of major mineral resources in Hubei province in the future and analyze the change situation of supply and demand,which can pro-vide data support for the planning and deployment of relevant work of government departments such as natural resources.It is of great significance to predict the future changes in the consumption demand of major mineral resources in Hubei province and analyze the supply and demand situation,which can provide data support for the relevant work of planning and deployment of natural resources and other government departments.Based on the analysis of the overall situation of mineral resources at home and abroad,this paper collects and collates the data of exploration,development,utilization and consumption of major minerals in Hubei Province over the years,judges the growth stage based on the'S'shape law of per capita consumption of mineral resources,and uses regression analysis to fit the historical consumption data.The func-tion is used to predict the demand for mineral resources in 2030,combined with resource endowments,mineral exploration and development and industrial development,to carry out supply and demand analysis and put forward countermeasures and suggestions.The results show that the imbalance between supply and demand of oil,iron,copper and gold in Hubei is obvious,but shale gas has great potential.The supply of phosphorus and salt is sufficient,which can cover the demand of some provinces,but the quality of supply is not high.The supply and demand of limestone for cement and stone for con-struction are relatively balanced,but the layout of the mine is unreasonable and the basic support capacity is not strong.It is suggested to accelerate the implementation of a new round of prospecting strategic breakthrough action,promote shale gas exploration and development,strengthen the deep and edge exploration of old mines,and increase the reserves of en-ergy and strategic metal mineral resources.Continue to do a good job of protective mining of phosphorus and salt to im-prove the quality of supply.Further optimize the layout of open-pit mines for building materials,strengthen comprehensive utilization,and use sand and gravel resources through multiple channels.

mineral resourcesS-shaped rulesupply and demand analysiscountermeasures and suggestionsHubei

王琪、李书涛、王小敏、杨成、钟石玉、汤旋、陈洁

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湖北省自然资源厅 国土资源资料馆,湖北 武汉 430071

湖北省地质调查院,湖北 武汉 430034

湖北省矿业联合会,湖北 武汉 430022

矿产资源 "S"形规律 供需分析 对策建议 湖北

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HBT-17422019-222008

2024

资源环境与工程
湖北省地质学会,长江水利委员会长江勘测规划设计研究院,中国冶金地质勘查工程总局中南局,湖北省地质科学研究所

资源环境与工程

影响因子:0.283
ISSN:1671-1211
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)
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