Multi-energy Load Forecasting in Highway Service Area Based on Agent Modeling and Improved FCM
The multi-energy load forecasting of living buildings in highway service areas is key to the integration design and dispatching optimization of self-consistent transportation energy integration system.The cold,heat and power load of living buildings is of significant group characteristics,closely relating to the population distribution characteristics and energy-consuming behaviors of the people involved.Considering the group characteristics and energy-consumption behavior,we established the load forecasting model of living buildings in the highway service area based on the agent modeling method.Incorporating with the influence of seasons and holidays,we built typical energy consumption scenar-ios in highway service areas.Then,we applied the improved fuzzy C-mean clustering algorithm and the average value method to extract the cold,heat and power load curves of the living buildings in the highway service area.Finally,the simulation instance of energy load forecasting for a service area shows that the simulation accuracy can meet the require-ments of engineering practice and take significant reference for the integration design and dispatching optimization.
highway service areaagent modelingfuzzy clusteringtypical scenemulti-energy load forecasting
万方数据
维普
