基于县域尺度的"襄十随神"城市群粮食生产时空格局演变分析
Analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution of grain production patterns in the"Xiang-Shi-Sui-Shen"urban agglomeration at the county level
张又天 1于婧 1唐曦文 2夏建军 2陈朝霞 1李明 1焦文轩3
作者信息
- 1. 湖北大学资源环境学院,湖北 武汉 430062
- 2. 深圳市城市空间规划建筑设计有限公司,广东 深圳 518000
- 3. 武汉轻工大学化学与环境工程学院,湖北 武汉 430062
- 折叠
摘要
探析粮食生产格局的变化可准确把握粮食供需情况,对科学指导粮食供需平衡、制定相关粮食补贴政策以及有效解决粮食安全问题具有重要的现实意义.基于 2000-2020 年湖北省"襄十随神"城市群 21 个县域行政区划的面板数据,采用离散系数探析其区域粮食生产稳定性,利用重心模型及标准差椭圆方法分析区域粮食生产重心的演变过程,并通过空间自相关分析区域的空间集聚分布特征.结果显示,研究区域粮食总产在研究期间内主要经历了从上升到略微下降 2 个阶段,而粮食生产稳定性呈现上升后陡然下降再逐渐趋于稳定;研究区域内粮食生产存在显著的空间差异,粮食生产重心整体有向东南方向移动的演变趋势,襄阳、随州已发展为全域主要粮食高产区;粮食生产空间集聚趋势加强,区域间空间溢出效应明显.为此,结合当前研究区域发展状况,提出可协调粮食生产区域与经济发展的关系,加强粮食安全在社会发展综合考核中的重视程度;因势利导、因时制宜来制定不同农业政策,优化粮食生产空间布局;推进农业生产服务体系建设,建立区域内粮食主产县域长效粮食生产利益补偿机制等,以促进"襄十随神"城市群粮食生产区域分工更加清晰合理,确保粮食生产区域协调发展.
Abstract
Analyzing the changes in the grain production pattern is crucial for accurately understanding the supply and demand situation of grain.It holds significant practical significance in scientifically guiding the balance of grain supply and demand,formulating related grain subsidy policies,and effectively addressing food security issues.This paper,based on panel data of 21 administrative regions within the"Xiang-Shi-Sui-Shen"urban agglomeration in Hubei province from 2000 to 2020,employed the coefficient of variation to analyze the regional stability of grain production.The study utilized the center of gravity model and standard deviation ellipse method to analyze the evolution process of the regional grain production center and employed spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the spatial clustering distribution characteristics.The results indicated that the total grain production in the study area mainly experienced two phases during the research period,rising initially and then slightly declining,while the stability of grain production exhibited an initial increase followed by a sudden decrease before gradually stabilizing.There were significant spatial differences in grain production within the study area,and the overall trend of the grain production center shifted towards the southeast,with Xiangyang and Suizhou developing into the main grain high-yield areas.The spatial clustering trend of grain production strengthened,and there was a noticeable spatial spillover effect between regions.In light of these findings and the current development status of the study area,recommendations were proposed to coordinate the relationship between grain production regions and economic development,enhance the importance of food security in the comprehensive assessment of social development,formulate tailored agricultural policies based on current conditions,optimize the spatial layout of grain production,advance the construction of agricultural production service systems,and establish a long-term compensation mechanism for the grain production interests in the main counties within the region.These measures aimed to promote a clearer and more rational division of labor in grain production areas within the"Xiang-Shi-Sui-Shen"urban agglomeration,ensuring the coordinated development of grain production regions.Analyzing the changes in the grain production pattern is crucial for accurately understanding the supply and demand situation of grain.It holds significant practical significance in scientifically guiding the balance of grain supply and demand,formulating related grain subsidy policies,and effectively addressing food security issues.
关键词
粮食生产/时空格局演变/"襄十随神"城市群/离散系数/标准差椭圆Key words
grain production/spatiotemporal pattern evolution/"Xiang-Shi-Sui-Shen"urban agglomeration/coefficient of variation/standard deviation ellipse引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
NETL
NSTL
万方数据