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疫苗接种及多种措施对新型冠状病毒传播及死亡的影响

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为了深入了解新型冠状病毒的传播机制,结合疫苗接种的特点,考虑了人口流动、核酸检测和个人防护多种防控措施,将感染者分为无症状感染者、轻症感染者和重症感染者,建立了新型冠状病毒的SEIR传播动力学模型.利用下一代矩阵法计算了基本再生数,利用Lyapunov函数分析了平衡点的稳定性.通过数值模拟和敏感性分析发现:增加疫苗接种率对减少死亡人数有帮助;控制流动人口和进行核酸检测对减少死亡人数和控制疫情的传播都有帮助.疫苗接种率较低时虽然不会减少无症状感染者的数量,但也能减少总感染人数与死亡人数.
Impact of Vaccination and Multiple Measures on Corona Virus Infection and Death
In order to gain insights into the mechanism of corona virus transmission,based on the charac-teristics of vaccination,the SEIR transmission dynamics model of corona virus was established by taking into account various prevention and control measures such as population flow,nucleic acid detection and personal protection.The infected persons were classified into asymptomatic,mild and severe infected per-sons.The next generation matrix method was used to calculate the basic regeneration number and Lyapu-nov function was used to analyze the stability of the equilibrium point.Through numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis,it is found that increasing the vaccination rate is helpful to reduce the number of deaths;Control of floating populations and nucleic acid testing are both helpful in reducing the number of deaths and controlling the spread of the epidemic.Low vaccination rates will not reduce the number of asymptomatic infections,but they can reduce the total number of infections and deaths.

epidemic modelasymptomatic infectionvaccinationcorona virusglobal stability

胡国庆、薛亚奎

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中北大学 数学学院,山西 太原 030051

传染病模型 无症状感染 疫苗接种 新型冠状病毒 全局稳定性

国家自然科学基金资助项目山西省自然科学青年基金资助项目

11971278201801D221040

2024

中北大学学报(自然科学版)
中北大学

中北大学学报(自然科学版)

影响因子:0.258
ISSN:1673-3193
年,卷(期):2024.45(4)