The present carbon emission situation and future carbon emission reduction potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were studied.The influence degree of each driving factor on carbon emission was obtained with extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression model.The change trend of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei re-gion under different scenarios was simulated.Low-carbon resilience assessment indicators were determined to assess the strength of low-carbon resilience in different scenarios in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results show that the driving effects of carbon emission drivers in different regions are different.Given that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is more likely to peak carbon emissions under the low growth scenario,the direction of development mode should be adjusted to the low growth scenario.Beijing has more low-carbon resilience under the three scenarios,while Tianjin and Hebei have stronger low-carbon resilience under the low-growth scenario.
关键词
碳排放峰值模拟/低碳经济/低碳韧性/扩展STIRPAT模型/岭回归
Key words
simulation of peaking carbon emissions/low-carbon economy/low-carbon resilience/extended STIRPAT model/ridge regression
维普
万方数据