为探究清江流域土地利用变化对碳储量的响应，揭示碳储量时空演变特征，探索流域可持续发展道路，利用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs，InVEST)模型与斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation，PLUS)模型，对清江流域2000、2010、2020 年以及预测的2030 年2种情景下的碳储量进行评估，从时间及空间角度剖析流域碳储量的时空演变特征。结果表明，清江流域主要地类为林地和耕地，二者也是流域主要的固碳地类。2000-2030 年自然发展情景下各地类碳储量均值呈现"两增两减两稳定"的特征。清江流域碳储量水平较高且保持相对稳定，碳储量特征值在空间分布上呈现集聚性逐渐减弱的空间正相关关系，高值区集中分布于流域东南部，低值区分散在流域中北部。生态保护情景相较于自然发展情景更有利于碳的蓄积，在未来土地利用规划中采取生态保护措施，有助于增强流域的固碳能力以及保障流域各生态系统的碳平衡。该研究结果可为清江流域可持续发展提供理论指导。
Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Stocks and Scenario Modeling in Qingjiang River Basin in Southwestern Hubei Province
The purpose of this paper was to investigate the response of land use change to carbon stock in Qingjiang river basin,to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon stock,and to explore the sustainable development path of the basin.Using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model and the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,the carbon stocks in the Qingjiang river basin under two scenarios in 2000,2010,2020 and 2030 were evaluated,and the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon stocks in the basin from both temporal and spatial perspectives were analyzed.The results showed that the main land types in the Qingjiang river basin were forest land and cropland,which were also the main carbon sequestering land types in the basin,and the average carbon stock value of each land type under the natural development scenario from 2000 to 2030 showed the characteristics of″two increases,two decreases,and two stabilizations″.The carbon stock level in Qingjiang river basin was relatively high and stable,and the spatial distribution of carbon stock eigenvalues showed a positive spatial correlation with gradually decreasing agglomeration,and the high value areas were concentrated in the southeastern part of the basin,while the low value areas were dispersed in the central and northern parts of the basin.The ecological protection scenario was more favorable to carbon accumulation than the natural development scenario,and the adoption of ecological protection measures in future land use planning could help to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of the watershed and ensure the carbon balance of the ecosystems in the watershed.The results of the study can provide theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of the watershed.
land use changePLUS modelInVEST modelcarbon stocksscenario simulationspatial autocorrelation
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