Synoptic Verification and Error Analysis of JMA Model Products on Heavy Rain Forecast in Dandong
Based on Dandong weather station in Liaoning province,the numerical prediction facsimile data of the JMA model from July 2001 to August 2010 and the statistical and synoptic methods were used to verify and analyze the heavy rain forecast capability and error of JMA model,and verify the JMA model＇s forecast capability for upper-air circulation,synoptic influence systems in the middle and lower level and physical quantity field.The main results are as follows.The capability of JMA model on heavy rain forecast is limited and the threat score of forecast is 21.8% with the low forecast accuracy rate（23.8%）,forecast vacancy rate（24.0%） and high hit rate（76.0%）.The forecast error of the JMA model on heavy rain shows the precipitation value is less and there is a deviation for distribution of rain and,the forecast capability on the heavy rain caused by the cyclone or inverted trough is the best but that caused by cold vortex is the worst.The forecast capability of JMA model on heavy rain varies in different seasons,and the miss rate of heavy rain is higher in spring and summer and the heavy rain false alarm easily appears in autumn.The JMA model shows a better forecast capability on Eurasian circulation situation in middle-high latitude,with further west position and weak intensity and 1 degree in latitude northwards for trough bottom of westerly trough.Meanwhile,the prediction of location and intensity of low vortex is consistent with the respect of the analysis fields,but the range is relatively smaller,while the prediction of the location,the maximum wind velocity of low-level jet at 850 hPa and the location and central value of vertical updraft motion area at 700 hPa is similar to the actual value.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
