基于多模式预报的四川盆地强降水订正方法

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中文摘要：四川盆地地形地貌复杂,强降水预报难度大,对模式降水预报产品进行订正,是提升强降水预报质量的重要手段.本文选取2018-2019年发生在四川盆地的35次强降水过程,对ECMWF、CMA_MESO和SWC_WARMS三种模式的24h强降水预报采用常规评分和空间平移两个方法进行检验,并利用最优评分、多模式集成和位移订正三种方法进行订正试验.结果表明:最优评分订正方法可以有效改善各模式降水预报的强度,而多模式集成订正法可以改进降水落区和极值预报,在此基础上计算位移偏差,根据最优的位移偏差值对降水预报进行位移订正,可以进一步改进强降水落区预报效果.然后利用2020-2021年强降水过程进行订正效果验证,结果显示:经订正后的降水极值预报更接近实况,各量级降水预报评分明显优于单一模式,暴雨和大暴雨预报的TS评分提高率较最优单模式分别可达24.3%和42.8%,订正后空报率基本维持,漏报率显著下降,订正效果良好.

外文标题：Correction method of heavy rainfall in the Sichuan Basin based on multi-model forecasting

外文摘要：The terrain and landform of the Sichuan Basin are complex,which also make the forecast of heavy rainfall challenging,therefore the correction of the model precipitation forecast products is the crucial method to improve the quality of heavy rainfall forecasting.In this pa-per,a total of 35 heavy rainfall processes that occurred in the Sichuan Basin from 2018 to 2019 were examined to verify the 24-hour heavy rainfall prediction of ECMWF,CMA_MESO,and SWC_WARMS by using conventional score and spatial translation methods.Correction ex-periments are then conducted on these models using three methods,including optimal score,multi-model integration,and displacement cor-rection.The results show that the optimal score correction method can effectively improve the intensity of precipitation prediction,while the multi-model integration correction method performs better in both the precipitation fall area and extremum prediction.On this basis,the dis-placement deviation is calculated,which is used to correct the displacement of precipitation prediction according to the optimal value,and thus further improve the forecast of heavy rainfall area.Finally,the performance of the correction is evaluated by using the heavy rainfall processes from 2020 to 2021.The results show that the corrected precipitation extremum prediction is closer to the actual observations,with the precipi-tation prediction score of each magnitude being obviously better than that of the single model.Compared to the optimal single model,the TS score improvement rate of the rainstorm and heavy rainstorm prediction can reach 24.3%and 42.8%,respectively.After correction,the false alarm rate(FAR)basically remains unchanged,while the missing rate(MR)significantly decreases,suggesting good correction effects.

外文关键词：

multi-model integrationoptimal score methodspatial translation verificationthree-source merged of precipitation

作者：

龙柯吉、康岚、肖递祥、杨康权

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作者单位：

四川省气象台,成都 610072

高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072

关键词：

多模式集成最优评分法空间平移检验三源融合降水

基金：

四川省自然科学基金重点项目中国气象局创新发展专项中国气象局创新发展专项高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目四川省气象局智能网格预报创新团队四川省科技计划重点研发专项

项目编号：

2022NSFC0021CXFZ2021J027CXFZ2023J016SCQXKJZD2020002SCQXKJYJXZD202201SCQXKJZD202101SCQXCXTD-2022012022YFS0542

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.12406/byzh.2023-008

暴雨灾害

中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所

暴雨灾害

CSTPCD

影响因子：1.533

ISSN：1004-9045

年,卷(期)：2024.43(1)

参考文献量29