首页|近62a华南"龙舟水"气候特征及变化

近62a华南"龙舟水"气候特征及变化

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每年端午节前后龙舟竞渡之时,是华南前汛期降水最多、最为集中的时段,容易引发严重洪涝灾害,并对早稻生产造成严重影响,称之为"龙舟水".对华南"龙舟水"期间暴雨过程的频次和强度进行研究是当前防灾减灾的迫切需求.利用1961-2022年华南192个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,采用EOF、线性趋势、M-K突变等方法,分析了华南"龙舟水"期间降水量的时空特征及变化;构建了一个表征华南"龙舟水"暴雨过程的综合强度指数,由此分析华南近62a"龙舟水"期间暴雨过程频次、强度以及"龙舟水"强度年景指数的特征和变化.结果表明,华南"龙舟水"一致性变化是其最主要的特点.1961-2022年"龙舟水"期间,华南共出现229次暴雨过程,平均每年3.7次.近62a来华南区域平均"龙舟水"降水量和暴雨过程频次变化趋势不显著,但"龙舟水"强度年景指数以1.2·(10 a)-1的速率显著上升.评估得到近62a华南"龙舟水"最强暴雨过程出现在2022年6月4-21日,华南"龙舟水"强年有4a,分别出现在2022年、2020年、2008年和2006年.
Climate characteristics and variation of the Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China in the past 62 years
The precipitation reaches its maximum and is most concentrated during the period of the first flood season in South China around the Dragon Boat Festival every year,which is usually referred to as"Dragon-boat Precipitation".The Dragon-boat Precipitation causes seri-ous floods and exerts a serious impact on the production of early rice.It is urgent to study the frequency and intensity of rainstorms during the Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China for disaster prevention and reduction.Using daily precipitation data from 192 national meteoro-logical observation stations in South China from 1961 to 2022,the spatiotemporal characteristics and variation of precipitation during the Dragon-boat Precipitation period in South China were analyzed with different methods,such as EOF analysis,linear trend analysis,and M-K mutation analysis.A comprehensive index representing the intensity of the Dragon-boat Precipitation rainstorm events in South China is constructed.Then,it is used to analyze the characteristics and variations of the number and intensity of the rainstorm events during the Dragon-boat Precipitation period in South China in the recent 62 years,as well as the annual index of the Dragon-boat Precipitation intensi-ty.The results indicate that the consistent increase of the annual intensity index is the main characteristic of the Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China.During the Dragon-boat Precipitation period in the recent 62 years,there were 229 rainstorm events in South China,with an average of 3.7 times per year.In South China,the average precipitation and the number of rainstorm events did not change significantly,but the annual intensity index of Dragon-boat precipitation increased significantly at a rate of 1.2·(10 a)-1.The assessment showed that the stron-gest Dragon-boat precipitation rainstorm event in South China in the past 62 years would occur during June 4-21,2022.The annual varia-tion shows that there are four peaks of Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China,which occurred in 2022,2020,2008,and 2006.

Dragon-boat Precipitationrainstorm eventcomprehensive intensity indexclimate characteristicsSouth China

伍红雨、郭尧、吴遥

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广东省气候中心,广州 510641

中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510641

南方电网数字电网集团有限责任公司,广州 510663

重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147

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龙舟水 暴雨过程 综合强度指数 气候特征 华南

国家自然科学基金项目2022年广东省灾害防治及应急管理专项广东省气象局科技创新团队

41930972粤财环[2022]16号GRMCTD202101

2024

暴雨灾害
中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所

暴雨灾害

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.533
ISSN:1004-9045
年,卷(期):2024.43(1)
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